***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 68.1 65.4 58.1 142.4 73.3 63.3 26.3 47.0 61.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 55.3 61.3 59.3 137.3 74.2 62.3 30.0 36.7 55.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 61.6 72.1 63.8 153.2 80.7 67.3 28.8 44.8 53.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 56.1 77.0 67.8 155.7 76.1 64.3 32.4 50.0 73.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 54.2 61.8 69.6 161.5 78.2 68.7 30.1 42.1 48.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 55.7 59.9 72.9 138.1 75.3 62.2 25.8 38.3 52.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 47.2 59.6 55.0 127.4 72.6 59.2 34.0 41.2 53.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 103.2 119.2 79.2 169.9 83.5 74.9 50.2 68.8 84.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 55.8 65.4 70.5 162.0 78.7 70.7 29.8 39.5 51.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 68.9 79.8 80.9 166.6 81.4 73.7 30.9 47.7 64.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 54.9 62.3 70.1 176.3 83.0 72.2 32.3 41.7 51.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 66.2 77.0 66.9 174.9 83.9 74.0 29.6 41.6 60.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 56.6 63.5 67.2 151.4 77.4 68.0 27.9 41.5 54.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 85.5 114.5 79.5 152.6 82.6 71.3 39.1 57.2 66.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 38.0 63.1 65.9 167.4 79.4 63.2 21.1 31.0 44.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 50.7 57.9 67.0 162.0 79.3 68.5 24.1 35.0 46.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 48.8 53.3 55.4 126.0 68.4 58.5 32.8 45.7 52.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 81.6 94.7 86.6 156.8 81.7 73.1 43.9 65.7 77.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 62.3 71.6 62.5 145.8 76.6 65.3 30.3 44.5 64.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 83.9 89.1 90.1 143.3 76.3 71.0 54.7 67.4 82.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 64.8 76.8 63.3 156.8 80.3 68.1 25.2 49.1 61.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 49.6 59.0 61.4 137.8 71.6 62.7 31.7 42.7 56.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 62.3 77.4 66.4 153.4 79.7 68.4 27.6 41.0 47.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 77.9 94.0 78.2 157.2 82.7 71.5 33.7 59.3 69.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 50.3 59.0 62.7 133.7 71.5 60.3 34.7 45.6 52.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 49.7 56.8 60.4 156.9 78.0 69.1 27.9 35.3 47.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 47.8 61.7 60.5 130.3 69.6 59.8 29.4 40.9 54.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 56.0 69.5 68.2 163.3 77.7 64.9 22.0 33.0 43.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 120.5 137.1 88.3 149.9 79.1 71.9 61.7 85.6 119.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 54.5 58.7 59.9 140.7 75.3 63.3 26.3 39.3 49.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------