***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.5 17.7 10.0 102.5 69.3 50.5 2.0 5.0 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 3.1 11.1 9.3 86.9 63.4 48.0 2.5 7.1 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.8 12.1 9.5 91.4 67.3 50.6 3.0 7.3 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.8 14.2 11.5 100.4 64.0 49.7 3.0 8.1 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 7.1 9.1 11.5 103.5 64.7 51.5 1.6 5.2 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.9 11.5 12.9 98.1 68.9 51.6 2.5 6.3 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 1.5 11.8 9.5 91.3 65.0 48.1 2.3 3.7 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 15.7 17.4 11.2 98.8 64.3 51.6 4.5 11.7 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.3 10.8 11.3 104.1 67.7 52.8 1.7 3.7 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.4 19.0 12.0 103.0 67.2 52.8 2.6 7.6 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 7.7 11.9 10.1 100.9 65.3 51.0 1.4 4.8 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.6 8.6 9.6 99.6 65.3 51.0 1.7 3.7 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.5 14.2 11.2 101.0 69.9 49.9 1.6 5.9 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.9 14.2 11.1 83.6 64.0 51.3 3.6 5.9 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.7 11.4 9.9 91.6 66.8 49.4 1.5 5.4 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.3 10.2 10.5 99.1 66.7 50.7 1.9 4.7 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 1.9 7.2 8.6 83.3 62.6 45.9 1.6 4.9 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.0 10.6 12.9 95.7 66.0 52.8 3.6 8.8 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 2.4 7.3 9.2 85.7 64.0 49.0 2.9 4.6 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.5 15.5 13.4 85.1 60.9 49.9 5.8 10.7 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.4 14.5 10.0 99.1 68.5 51.9 2.3 4.3 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 2.9 10.0 8.2 79.1 60.8 46.8 1.9 7.3 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 2.8 11.8 9.2 84.7 62.9 50.8 3.2 5.3 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.5 10.5 11.2 89.6 65.9 51.9 3.8 5.3 10.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.5 10.9 11.2 98.3 66.9 49.6 3.1 4.7 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.5 11.0 9.5 92.2 67.7 49.2 1.6 5.0 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.3 14.4 10.8 99.1 67.0 49.7 2.3 4.3 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.2 9.2 10.7 95.5 65.2 49.8 1.1 5.9 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.3 18.3 13.2 89.3 63.3 51.4 5.0 8.1 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.3 9.5 9.6 90.5 64.8 49.5 1.3 5.7 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------