***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.09.2014.-21.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 10.9 17.6 11.2 112.3 69.3 52.7 2.2 7.6 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.4 12.5 12.1 119.6 67.1 51.2 4.1 7.6 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.6 11.2 113.4 67.3 52.2 1.6 7.0 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 3.3 15.8 12.1 114.4 68.6 52.5 3.2 6.3 12.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 2.6 12.0 11.3 107.2 66.5 52.0 2.8 5.3 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.9 9.8 13.4 109.0 65.1 51.4 2.9 6.0 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.9 11.7 12.3 121.5 68.1 52.5 3.9 7.8 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.1 20.2 12.2 106.4 65.3 50.6 6.5 15.5 20.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.5 10.6 11.3 104.1 65.5 51.6 2.5 7.8 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.7 16.1 12.8 106.5 65.5 51.6 5.4 7.9 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.2 15.0 10.2 110.5 68.1 51.7 1.4 7.9 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.2 14.0 9.9 109.1 69.1 51.2 2.7 5.3 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.2 11.7 11.7 112.9 70.1 51.4 2.8 7.3 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.2 17.1 14.1 115.1 63.7 50.3 2.6 9.0 19.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 1.7 10.3 12.1 127.6 73.3 50.0 1.7 4.4 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.2 8.7 11.2 117.5 69.6 52.6 2.7 5.0 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.3 12.3 12.1 120.4 66.8 51.5 4.9 7.0 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.5 22.4 15.2 113.0 66.4 52.7 3.6 11.3 22.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 2.9 14.0 11.5 116.8 65.3 50.8 2.4 6.6 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 8.5 21.4 16.5 105.0 61.5 49.1 7.0 17.8 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.2 10.6 10.4 107.2 66.4 51.9 2.2 4.6 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 2.8 13.4 12.2 117.2 64.5 50.5 2.9 7.1 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.9 13.4 11.2 115.7 64.5 50.8 2.6 8.9 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 2.5 12.7 13.6 113.0 67.4 52.2 2.9 5.6 11.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.1 14.8 13.7 116.0 67.8 52.9 3.7 8.5 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.6 16.9 10.3 116.9 70.0 50.5 2.3 7.9 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.3 11.4 13.5 113.5 67.5 52.6 2.3 9.0 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.3 15.1 11.7 117.6 70.3 51.6 0.7 5.1 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.2 24.8 15.9 112.9 66.1 51.4 10.9 15.1 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.8 16.0 11.9 118.4 68.6 51.7 2.3 5.9 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------