***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.09.2014.-14.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.0 25.1 12.7 140.4 76.2 56.4 0.9 6.2 22.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 12.0 21.3 11.0 107.6 69.5 55.2 2.3 8.7 18.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.9 28.4 12.0 129.3 73.9 57.5 2.2 7.8 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.4 26.7 12.8 133.3 76.9 55.1 0.7 6.5 17.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 15.7 22.1 15.3 157.1 78.6 59.2 1.3 4.8 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.0 17.5 19.1 138.1 75.9 56.4 0.5 4.3 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.9 17.2 11.2 105.0 68.7 52.6 3.2 7.9 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 4.2 31.8 15.1 133.0 74.0 57.9 2.6 8.4 28.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 16.8 23.3 17.0 171.4 81.2 61.5 1.5 5.7 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 15.8 19.7 17.2 147.2 75.9 59.3 2.8 6.8 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 1.8 20.3 14.2 153.0 79.5 58.4 0.4 3.9 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 12.3 15.4 12.6 144.8 77.6 59.0 1.0 6.1 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 14.5 17.9 14.6 132.9 74.2 56.7 0.2 3.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.4 27.2 15.7 130.7 71.0 59.7 2.4 7.6 23.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 0.8 15.0 12.2 144.8 78.9 56.6 0.2 1.8 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.1 15.3 14.5 145.3 77.8 57.8 0.1 4.3 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.6 25.0 11.2 101.4 69.3 53.6 1.7 7.8 22.4 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 3.6 22.7 17.8 131.7 71.5 58.0 2.8 7.6 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 13.7 21.7 11.2 113.0 70.7 55.9 3.3 8.4 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 16.0 18.5 18.3 112.6 66.4 54.8 4.1 12.5 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.3 26.7 13.8 155.0 78.4 58.6 2.7 8.1 21.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 16.2 21.7 12.0 112.0 71.7 53.1 3.1 11.9 18.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 19.3 20.5 11.7 119.1 71.6 57.0 3.0 7.1 19.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.9 26.8 15.8 136.9 72.7 60.2 2.1 9.5 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.2 29.3 14.6 138.5 75.3 58.5 1.2 6.6 22.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 0.4 14.9 11.6 127.3 76.8 57.9 0.2 1.0 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.1 25.0 14.3 135.5 74.3 57.2 1.7 6.6 23.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.3 16.8 13.4 141.7 79.4 55.9 0.5 2.7 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 10.3 29.9 17.6 120.1 68.0 55.7 10.6 21.3 28.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 12.1 14.4 11.2 112.7 70.4 54.2 2.8 9.9 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------