***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 11.5 19.9 24.2 200.4 82.3 65.9 0.0 1.3 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 10.3 16.2 26.8 222.0 85.7 68.9 0.4 3.5 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 12.3 24.8 31.1 257.6 89.0 73.2 0.4 6.3 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 25.2 40.2 31.4 263.9 91.4 68.9 2.5 12.2 19.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 16.3 29.5 31.5 268.8 90.8 73.4 0.4 6.0 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 16.1 26.6 27.5 203.4 83.9 68.4 3.0 8.0 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 12.3 16.6 21.9 184.7 80.2 63.2 0.1 4.8 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 33.4 66.5 40.8 323.7 95.3 81.9 13.5 16.6 22.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 15.8 26.7 30.9 260.5 92.1 75.2 3.4 8.4 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 18.0 40.9 39.0 293.5 93.3 79.8 2.9 5.0 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 16.6 35.4 35.6 317.8 92.9 77.5 2.4 4.7 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 28.5 46.8 34.7 325.2 94.4 80.2 1.3 9.3 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 20.6 33.2 29.7 247.6 91.3 75.5 3.1 10.2 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 17.8 26.9 38.6 264.8 90.1 78.9 1.5 8.9 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 9.8 28.0 31.8 296.5 91.6 63.8 0.2 2.5 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 20.6 40.6 30.8 272.6 91.2 74.8 1.5 6.8 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 13.0 18.1 23.5 187.9 81.0 65.0 0.2 5.2 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 24.1 40.7 40.7 276.2 92.6 81.9 1.9 13.3 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 16.1 26.2 30.6 247.1 87.9 72.2 2.0 6.1 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 29.6 50.8 42.0 277.6 95.4 84.4 2.7 14.8 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 12.1 21.6 29.1 248.7 90.0 72.7 0.4 4.5 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 15.2 20.9 29.0 220.9 86.4 69.8 4.1 11.5 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 13.3 23.3 34.2 265.9 88.2 74.8 1.6 4.9 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 21.4 34.5 37.7 274.2 90.9 79.1 1.3 6.8 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 11.6 18.5 23.2 175.7 80.4 62.5 0.2 5.1 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 16.2 32.4 28.9 283.4 91.2 78.1 0.4 6.0 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 11.3 15.8 21.9 165.9 77.8 61.6 0.0 2.7 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 16.4 29.0 32.4 290.4 92.5 69.0 0.4 8.2 16.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 30.0 61.6 41.6 271.6 93.9 82.6 8.7 15.0 28.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 13.0 24.6 27.1 227.4 86.6 69.2 0.4 4.4 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------