***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 22.5 22.4 22.5 -1.4 25.5 29.7 22.9 23.5 24.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 22.7 22.8 22.6 -1.3 26.7 31.8 23.0 23.9 24.5 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 22.7 23.1 22.6 -1.4 24.8 29.1 23.3 23.6 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 15.8 15.7 20.9 -1.5 25.6 28.2 16.0 16.6 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 23.4 23.2 21.2 -1.4 26.5 29.6 23.6 24.0 25.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 22.7 22.5 20.0 -0.8 34.4 39.1 22.5 23.4 24.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 22.5 22.5 22.5 -1.3 28.7 32.0 22.7 23.7 24.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 12.2 11.8 19.8 -1.2 29.6 32.3 12.2 13.0 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 22.8 23.1 21.6 -1.4 26.2 29.1 23.2 23.7 24.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 22.6 22.5 20.4 -1.3 28.3 30.6 22.7 23.6 24.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 23.2 23.1 21.0 -1.3 28.2 32.1 23.2 24.0 24.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 22.5 22.3 20.8 -1.2 28.8 32.7 22.3 23.2 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 23.5 23.4 20.7 -1.1 32.7 35.6 23.4 24.3 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 22.8 22.7 21.2 -1.3 27.4 30.1 22.9 23.8 24.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 23.6 23.3 21.5 -1.5 23.4 27.5 23.4 24.4 25.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 24.1 24.1 20.9 -1.2 29.3 33.4 24.2 24.6 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 22.0 22.3 22.3 -1.1 30.0 33.5 22.4 23.1 24.1 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 21.9 22.1 19.7 -1.3 29.6 31.0 22.2 22.6 23.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 22.5 22.6 22.6 -1.3 26.6 31.4 23.2 23.5 24.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 18.3 17.9 17.9 -1.1 30.4 33.4 18.1 19.1 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 23.1 22.8 22.1 -1.5 24.0 27.9 23.1 23.8 24.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 22.4 22.6 22.2 -1.2 27.6 32.3 23.2 23.9 24.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 22.7 22.8 22.5 -1.3 27.3 31.0 23.3 23.8 24.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 22.6 22.7 21.1 -1.3 27.3 29.9 22.9 23.1 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 22.8 22.8 21.3 -1.3 28.0 30.5 23.3 23.7 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 23.3 23.1 20.7 -1.1 30.7 34.3 23.2 24.5 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 22.8 22.7 21.9 -1.2 29.3 32.0 22.9 23.6 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 23.5 23.1 21.2 -1.6 24.1 28.0 23.8 24.3 25.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 17.4 17.5 18.9 -1.2 29.5 32.3 17.6 17.9 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 22.5 22.7 22.7 -1.4 25.9 30.7 23.1 23.5 24.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------