***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 21.1 21.3 20.6 -1.5 32.4 36.4 21.3 23.0 23.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 21.3 21.8 20.7 -1.4 34.7 37.7 21.6 23.3 24.7 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 21.3 20.8 20.7 -1.5 33.5 37.1 20.8 23.2 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 13.9 14.7 19.0 -1.6 29.7 35.6 15.0 15.8 17.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 21.6 21.4 19.2 -1.5 33.2 37.1 21.4 23.8 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 20.7 20.7 18.1 -1.0 33.5 41.7 20.6 22.7 23.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 20.6 21.3 20.6 -1.5 33.5 37.2 21.3 22.7 23.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 10.2 11.4 18.1 -1.3 35.4 39.8 11.2 12.9 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 21.2 21.1 19.6 -1.5 32.7 37.3 21.1 23.1 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 20.6 21.0 18.6 -1.4 34.5 38.7 21.0 22.8 24.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 21.3 21.3 19.0 -1.4 34.4 38.5 21.1 23.5 24.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 20.4 20.8 18.9 -1.3 35.2 39.1 20.7 23.0 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 21.4 21.6 18.6 -1.3 33.1 39.3 21.6 23.8 25.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 20.8 21.8 19.5 -1.3 36.2 40.7 21.6 22.8 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 21.5 21.6 19.3 -1.6 26.1 34.3 22.4 23.3 24.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 22.0 22.1 18.9 -1.4 33.1 38.6 22.1 24.1 25.9 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 20.4 21.5 20.5 -1.3 34.3 38.5 21.5 22.1 24.3 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 20.0 20.5 18.0 -1.3 36.4 40.2 20.1 21.8 23.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 20.9 21.2 20.8 -1.4 34.6 38.3 21.1 22.7 24.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 16.1 16.5 16.3 -1.1 35.9 41.8 16.3 18.6 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 21.2 20.9 20.2 -1.5 32.1 36.6 21.0 23.5 24.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 21.1 21.4 20.5 -1.3 33.6 39.3 21.3 23.0 25.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 20.8 21.3 20.7 -1.3 34.3 39.2 21.3 23.1 24.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 20.6 21.7 19.4 -1.4 35.9 39.4 21.2 22.8 23.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 21.0 21.3 19.2 -1.4 32.8 36.6 21.3 22.9 24.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 21.5 21.1 18.7 -1.3 33.4 39.1 21.0 23.8 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 21.0 21.0 19.9 -1.4 33.4 36.9 21.0 23.0 24.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 21.3 22.1 19.2 -1.6 28.8 35.4 22.6 23.1 24.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 15.2 15.6 17.2 -1.2 36.0 41.1 15.3 17.4 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 20.9 21.3 20.8 -1.5 33.7 37.1 21.2 23.1 24.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------