***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.09.2014.-14.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 22.6 24.2 23.6 -1.2 35.2 38.0 24.2 25.0 26.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 22.8 24.4 23.7 -1.0 37.1 39.8 24.1 25.1 26.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 22.6 24.3 23.7 -1.1 35.5 38.8 24.2 25.1 26.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 14.7 16.5 22.2 -1.3 31.1 35.9 16.5 17.5 20.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 23.0 24.7 22.4 -1.2 34.6 38.0 24.6 25.2 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 24.6 22.7 21.3 -0.6 40.2 44.1 22.4 24.1 25.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 22.4 23.8 23.6 -1.0 36.9 39.8 23.6 24.8 26.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 11.9 12.3 21.2 -0.9 36.1 41.0 11.9 13.7 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 22.5 24.5 22.7 -1.1 35.1 38.3 24.4 25.0 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 22.3 23.7 21.6 -1.0 35.1 40.0 23.7 24.4 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 22.7 24.2 22.2 -1.0 34.2 39.9 24.1 24.8 26.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 21.9 23.1 22.1 -0.9 35.6 40.4 22.9 24.2 25.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 23.0 24.2 21.8 -0.9 36.6 40.5 24.1 25.5 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 22.9 24.2 22.5 -0.7 38.5 42.9 23.9 24.7 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 22.8 23.5 22.5 -1.5 26.6 34.5 24.4 25.3 27.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 23.3 24.8 22.1 -1.0 35.1 39.9 24.6 25.6 26.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 22.5 23.3 23.4 -0.9 38.1 40.9 22.8 24.6 25.6 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 21.4 22.9 21.1 -0.8 36.6 41.9 22.7 23.8 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 22.7 24.0 23.8 -1.0 37.5 40.3 23.7 24.8 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 20.6 18.3 19.3 -0.6 36.8 42.9 18.0 20.0 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 22.7 24.4 23.2 -1.2 34.3 37.2 24.4 25.4 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 23.0 24.2 23.3 -0.9 38.5 41.2 22.7 24.9 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 23.1 23.8 23.7 -0.9 37.4 41.4 23.6 25.0 26.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 22.4 24.0 22.4 -0.8 37.6 41.3 23.7 24.6 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 22.5 24.2 22.3 -1.1 35.4 38.1 24.0 25.1 26.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 23.2 23.4 21.8 -1.0 35.9 39.7 23.3 25.2 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 22.6 24.1 23.0 -1.0 36.1 39.3 24.0 24.9 26.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 23.1 24.3 22.4 -1.4 29.4 35.7 24.5 25.3 27.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.8 18.1 20.3 -0.6 36.9 43.0 17.9 19.2 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 22.7 23.9 23.8 -1.1 37.4 39.1 23.9 24.9 26.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------