***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 11.5 11.1 13.6 -0.5 37.7 39.1 11.0 11.3 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 11.6 11.1 13.5 -0.4 37.8 40.1 10.9 11.2 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 12.8 12.9 13.4 -0.5 36.0 38.0 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.1 8.5 11.2 -0.6 33.5 34.7 8.5 8.7 9.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 9.7 9.8 11.3 -0.5 36.6 36.8 9.8 10.3 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 8.9 9.2 10.1 -0.2 44.8 44.9 9.0 9.5 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 10.9 11.1 13.5 -0.5 35.2 38.4 11.0 11.6 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 4.6 4.8 9.9 -0.3 40.8 40.5 4.6 5.1 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 10.9 11.0 11.7 -0.5 36.7 37.8 10.9 11.3 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 10.5 10.8 10.3 -0.3 40.0 40.6 10.7 11.0 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 10.2 10.4 11.1 -0.4 39.8 39.7 10.3 10.7 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 8.7 9.2 10.6 -0.4 38.6 39.2 8.9 9.5 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.5 9.9 10.2 -0.4 38.1 39.6 9.7 10.3 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 10.9 11.2 11.8 -0.4 34.1 38.8 11.2 11.5 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 11.3 11.3 11.9 -0.7 31.7 32.6 11.3 12.1 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 10.8 11.1 10.8 -0.5 36.8 38.1 11.0 11.2 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.4 13.2 -0.2 42.9 44.7 11.2 11.5 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 9.3 9.5 9.7 -0.3 38.6 40.6 9.2 10.0 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 10.7 11.1 13.5 -0.4 38.2 40.2 11.0 11.2 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.5 6.0 8.3 -0.3 39.4 41.7 5.7 6.3 6.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 10.3 10.6 12.7 -0.5 34.7 36.7 10.4 10.9 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.5 13.1 -0.3 40.2 41.2 10.1 10.9 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 10.0 10.5 13.2 -0.4 38.3 39.7 10.4 10.7 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 10.5 10.4 11.6 -0.4 37.3 38.8 10.2 11.1 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.2 12.2 -0.3 38.1 41.4 10.7 11.6 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 9.7 10.1 10.3 -0.5 37.5 37.4 9.9 10.3 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.3 12.9 -0.4 38.3 41.1 11.1 11.7 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 9.3 9.5 11.5 -0.7 30.9 32.1 9.6 10.0 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 8.1 8.4 9.2 -0.3 37.5 40.9 8.4 8.8 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 12.0 11.5 13.6 -0.5 36.2 37.9 11.3 11.7 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------