***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9.5 9.8 11.3 -1.2 32.6 36.6 9.8 10.6 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 9.7 10.3 11.4 -1.0 37.1 37.9 9.5 10.8 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 11.7 11.6 11.1 -1.2 30.9 35.5 11.9 13.1 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 6.9 6.8 9.0 -1.2 27.8 32.3 7.5 8.5 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 8.7 8.4 9.0 -1.1 29.9 33.8 8.8 10.2 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 7.4 7.9 7.9 -0.8 32.2 39.8 8.0 9.0 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 10.0 10.0 11.4 -1.0 35.8 37.9 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 3.4 3.6 7.6 -1.2 28.3 34.7 4.1 4.6 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 9.2 9.2 9.3 -1.1 30.7 35.0 9.6 10.7 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 9.2 9.1 8.0 -1.1 29.7 35.1 9.4 10.4 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 9.0 8.3 8.8 -1.1 30.0 34.6 8.4 10.4 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 7.8 7.4 8.4 -1.2 26.3 34.3 8.0 9.7 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 8.2 8.2 8.0 -1.0 26.7 36.1 8.6 9.9 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 9.8 10.0 9.5 -1.0 33.4 36.8 9.9 10.6 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 9.7 9.7 9.5 -1.3 26.0 31.7 10.2 10.8 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 9.8 9.6 8.6 -1.0 27.7 34.9 10.3 11.0 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.0 11.2 -0.7 41.6 40.8 9.8 10.4 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 7.9 8.2 7.4 -1.1 29.0 35.6 8.7 9.2 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 9.9 10.0 11.3 -1.0 35.7 37.4 10.0 10.4 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 4.6 4.2 6.3 -1.1 26.6 36.1 4.6 6.0 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 8.7 9.4 10.3 -1.2 30.9 34.7 9.4 10.1 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 9.1 9.5 11.0 -0.8 38.2 39.1 9.3 9.6 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 9.1 9.4 10.9 -1.0 33.1 36.3 9.4 9.9 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 9.1 9.0 9.3 -1.1 30.4 35.5 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 9.9 10.1 9.7 -1.1 31.2 35.9 10.1 11.1 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 8.2 8.3 8.4 -1.1 25.7 35.3 8.5 10.1 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 9.8 10.2 10.5 -1.1 33.3 37.4 10.2 11.4 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 8.0 7.3 9.3 -1.3 25.6 31.8 8.0 9.5 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 7.2 6.9 7.0 -1.1 27.4 35.3 7.3 8.8 9.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 9.7 10.2 11.5 -1.1 35.1 36.9 10.1 10.6 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------