***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.09.2014.-21.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9.9 10.2 12.7 -1.1 31.8 34.0 10.2 11.5 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 9.4 9.6 12.6 -1.1 33.0 34.3 9.6 11.0 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 11.9 12.0 12.5 -1.1 30.1 34.4 12.1 13.5 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 7.8 7.8 10.5 -1.0 31.9 35.5 7.9 9.1 9.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 8.8 9.9 10.5 -0.9 34.6 36.6 9.7 10.3 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.0 8.9 9.5 -0.4 39.1 43.5 8.4 9.6 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 10.1 10.3 12.6 -1.1 34.1 34.1 10.3 11.4 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 4.1 4.3 9.2 -0.7 35.0 38.8 4.2 5.6 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 10.0 10.2 10.8 -0.9 34.3 36.0 10.2 11.2 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 9.6 10.0 9.5 -0.8 34.2 37.8 9.8 11.1 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 9.5 10.1 10.3 -0.7 37.2 39.3 10.1 10.8 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 8.0 9.1 9.9 -0.8 34.8 38.0 9.1 9.5 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 8.3 9.2 9.6 -0.7 34.6 39.6 9.2 9.5 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 10.5 10.6 10.9 -0.9 32.7 36.1 10.6 11.9 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 10.7 10.7 11.1 -1.0 33.9 34.3 10.7 12.0 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 10.2 10.7 10.1 -0.7 37.4 39.7 10.2 11.6 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 10.4 10.8 12.4 -0.9 37.5 36.7 10.5 11.5 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 8.3 9.0 8.9 -0.7 31.0 37.7 9.0 10.4 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 10.0 10.3 12.6 -1.1 31.2 34.4 10.4 11.3 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.6 5.6 7.8 -0.6 35.5 40.3 5.2 6.2 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 9.5 9.9 11.8 -1.1 32.0 34.7 10.0 10.8 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 9.4 9.3 12.3 -1.0 34.7 35.1 9.2 10.8 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 8.9 9.4 12.3 -1.0 30.2 34.7 9.6 11.1 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 9.7 9.8 10.7 -0.9 31.5 36.6 10.1 11.2 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 10.3 10.2 11.1 -0.9 33.6 36.5 10.1 11.8 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 9.2 9.4 9.8 -0.8 36.4 38.7 9.3 10.8 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 10.0 9.4 11.9 -1.0 33.3 35.7 9.4 11.5 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 8.4 9.5 10.9 -1.0 34.7 35.7 9.3 9.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 7.6 8.1 8.5 -0.7 32.4 38.6 8.1 9.3 9.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 10.2 10.3 12.7 -1.2 31.6 33.6 10.4 11.6 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------