***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.09.2014.-14.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 10.1 10.9 14.1 -0.6 42.3 42.2 10.7 11.5 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 9.7 10.5 14.0 -0.5 37.5 42.8 10.3 11.1 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 12.5 13.6 13.9 -0.6 39.3 41.4 13.0 14.2 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.0 11.8 -0.7 40.6 40.1 8.6 9.5 10.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.9 9.3 11.9 -0.5 43.0 42.8 8.6 10.2 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.6 10.8 -0.2 48.0 48.4 8.1 9.8 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 10.4 11.0 14.0 -0.6 37.6 42.9 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.2 10.6 -0.3 43.5 45.5 4.6 5.6 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 12.1 11.3 12.2 -0.5 43.7 43.5 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.0 10.9 -0.3 44.1 44.7 10.2 11.2 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.2 10.3 11.7 -0.3 44.3 45.5 9.8 10.6 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.8 8.6 11.4 -0.3 43.1 44.9 8.1 9.4 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.0 10.9 -0.3 45.0 45.8 8.9 10.1 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.4 12.4 -0.4 42.0 43.0 11.2 11.9 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 11.1 11.5 12.3 -0.8 37.4 38.6 11.0 12.1 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 10.3 11.2 11.5 -0.4 43.6 44.8 10.6 11.5 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 10.9 11.8 13.8 -0.3 43.5 46.3 11.4 12.1 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.4 9.4 10.3 -0.3 41.9 44.8 9.0 10.0 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 10.0 11.1 14.0 -0.5 39.0 42.6 10.5 11.5 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.6 5.6 9.1 -0.2 44.0 45.7 4.8 6.1 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 9.6 10.7 13.2 -0.6 42.2 42.0 10.0 11.1 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 9.8 10.7 13.7 -0.4 42.6 44.6 9.9 11.2 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 9.3 10.3 13.7 -0.5 39.7 41.9 10.0 10.8 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.0 12.1 -0.4 41.6 43.1 10.5 11.3 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 9.9 10.4 12.5 -0.5 43.5 43.1 9.7 10.9 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.3 11.2 -0.4 45.9 44.0 9.2 10.5 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 10.2 10.9 13.3 -0.5 44.0 43.5 10.3 11.4 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 8.7 8.9 12.1 -0.7 38.7 39.4 8.7 9.9 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 9.9 9.1 9.9 -0.3 41.8 45.4 8.5 9.5 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 10.3 10.8 14.1 -0.6 37.5 41.8 10.8 11.8 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------