***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 13.1 13.0 16.3 1.1 71.2 67.3 11.8 12.6 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 13.0 13.0 16.0 1.0 67.9 66.7 11.5 12.4 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 15.6 15.9 16.1 1.0 69.3 65.6 13.5 14.4 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 10.6 10.4 13.5 0.5 64.9 60.6 8.2 9.2 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 12.4 12.0 13.9 0.6 67.4 62.8 10.7 11.6 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 11.0 10.8 12.0 0.6 66.1 62.8 10.1 10.5 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 13.1 13.0 15.8 0.7 64.0 63.8 12.4 12.8 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 6.8 6.9 12.1 0.8 66.4 65.1 4.8 5.6 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 13.1 12.9 14.6 0.7 69.0 65.2 11.9 12.7 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 13.0 13.1 13.0 0.9 71.0 67.8 12.0 12.3 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 12.7 12.6 13.5 0.6 65.7 63.5 11.2 12.2 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 11.1 11.0 12.8 0.6 64.6 63.1 10.1 10.6 11.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 11.7 12.0 12.4 0.4 62.8 59.3 10.6 11.6 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 13.9 13.8 14.3 0.7 66.8 63.2 12.5 13.2 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 13.9 13.6 14.9 0.3 60.3 58.5 12.7 13.1 14.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 13.0 13.0 12.9 0.2 58.2 57.2 12.2 12.8 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 13.7 13.7 15.5 1.1 71.0 68.8 12.2 13.0 13.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 11.8 11.9 12.0 0.9 70.1 67.3 10.6 11.4 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 13.3 13.2 16.0 1.1 69.5 67.1 12.1 12.5 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 8.0 7.9 10.1 0.8 65.7 65.8 6.5 7.0 7.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 12.9 12.8 15.7 0.8 68.0 65.0 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 12.9 12.9 15.6 0.9 69.0 66.2 11.9 12.4 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 13.1 13.1 15.9 1.0 69.6 66.7 11.6 12.5 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 13.2 13.1 14.1 0.8 67.8 64.9 12.0 12.6 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 13.5 13.8 15.3 1.2 74.4 69.7 11.3 12.4 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 11.7 11.9 11.9 0.2 58.2 55.5 10.8 11.5 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 13.9 13.6 15.6 1.1 71.9 67.9 11.0 12.0 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 11.2 11.3 13.8 0.1 55.3 54.5 10.6 10.9 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 10.6 10.8 11.4 0.8 66.7 66.0 8.6 9.5 10.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 13.4 13.4 16.2 0.9 67.2 64.7 12.1 12.5 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------