***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-27.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 68.8 84.2 51.8 192.5 88.0 77.8 29.4 51.1 62.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 60.3 74.2 51.6 207.1 88.8 78.3 30.0 41.3 54.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 66.1 77.1 50.1 185.6 86.3 76.2 28.5 46.7 59.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 77.5 105.8 49.0 180.2 85.5 74.2 32.3 52.2 71.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 55.5 78.7 48.6 186.1 85.1 74.9 33.3 42.0 55.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 56.1 67.2 48.4 165.9 81.1 70.0 23.4 36.3 48.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 58.3 89.4 51.1 211.5 89.8 79.4 32.0 39.3 53.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 100.1 118.3 51.5 168.3 81.8 72.2 54.2 67.8 82.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 54.8 71.1 49.0 178.9 84.1 74.8 30.7 40.7 50.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 63.9 80.0 54.5 173.8 84.0 74.0 31.7 48.6 59.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 54.4 65.9 44.1 169.3 82.0 72.0 34.5 39.4 51.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 63.1 75.5 40.9 163.0 79.0 69.8 27.5 42.3 62.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 55.9 65.3 42.6 166.2 79.4 68.9 30.9 40.0 51.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 87.3 113.3 61.7 174.6 83.5 72.9 39.1 52.1 65.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 51.1 75.0 40.5 171.4 82.6 72.3 20.1 28.7 36.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 50.0 58.2 43.0 168.4 80.9 70.3 25.7 35.4 46.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 56.1 96.3 53.7 213.8 89.3 80.3 31.6 45.0 52.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 78.3 91.6 60.6 175.2 86.5 74.0 42.4 64.9 76.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 67.5 89.8 52.0 199.5 88.4 77.2 30.3 47.3 57.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 79.6 103.3 63.5 173.0 85.8 73.1 51.6 67.4 78.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 66.1 82.9 48.7 181.4 84.4 75.7 35.7 47.6 58.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 64.2 113.9 57.6 208.4 90.8 78.5 30.9 44.7 57.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 65.8 87.4 51.4 185.1 86.4 75.2 26.1 40.6 46.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 79.0 99.9 56.2 176.6 85.1 73.8 35.8 52.9 65.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 61.3 76.9 55.5 198.0 87.2 78.2 37.2 47.6 60.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 48.9 58.1 39.1 163.6 79.9 68.3 29.4 35.6 40.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 61.9 83.1 55.2 198.1 88.7 78.5 35.9 42.5 60.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 58.3 75.7 44.1 172.6 83.5 72.0 24.6 31.1 42.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 119.1 141.3 62.7 173.7 85.9 73.7 60.5 80.9 111.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 57.2 83.5 51.8 205.1 88.0 78.0 26.2 41.6 49.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------