***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2020.-13.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 5.5 6.1 9.4 86.7 62.0 51.3 0.6 1.8 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.8 11.6 9.8 94.1 65.4 53.1 1.8 4.3 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.0 5.4 8.8 77.6 57.2 47.8 1.2 3.2 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.3 12.2 9.6 80.3 62.7 47.7 1.0 6.7 13.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 1.5 5.0 8.1 71.0 57.7 45.7 1.4 3.0 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 1.6 3.4 8.6 63.1 51.5 40.6 1.4 3.4 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.9 9.2 9.5 97.6 66.5 52.4 0.8 4.0 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 4.6 9.7 8.3 62.8 49.6 40.6 2.3 9.8 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 1.6 5.2 8.2 70.8 59.4 48.0 1.0 3.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 2.4 6.1 8.5 64.0 53.4 43.8 2.7 5.1 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 1.6 3.5 7.5 64.7 53.0 43.1 0.3 3.3 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.9 7.3 7.0 62.2 51.1 40.2 1.7 7.1 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.5 3.8 6.9 59.2 51.9 43.1 0.2 3.4 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 1.6 7.3 11.0 78.9 60.5 46.1 2.1 3.3 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 0.8 2.5 7.1 64.7 62.5 43.7 0.2 1.9 3.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.2 6.0 7.5 65.5 55.3 42.6 0.4 4.6 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 7.3 14.4 10.5 99.5 67.8 54.6 1.6 3.3 13.1 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 2.5 5.2 10.0 70.2 52.1 43.6 1.8 5.1 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.3 13.0 9.8 89.5 62.7 51.3 1.3 5.4 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.0 10.4 11.8 74.6 49.8 42.2 4.4 10.4 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.5 7.4 8.8 76.7 61.6 48.4 1.6 5.2 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.1 15.4 12.8 107.4 68.5 53.9 2.5 6.4 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.3 6.9 9.4 81.9 60.2 48.6 1.3 3.4 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 1.4 4.6 9.3 71.1 55.9 44.3 1.4 2.6 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 1.7 5.2 9.6 77.3 60.9 47.1 1.3 3.4 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 0.8 2.8 7.7 68.4 54.9 39.9 0.3 1.8 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 1.4 9.5 9.6 81.2 60.8 48.2 1.7 3.0 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 0.7 2.8 8.0 70.5 60.6 43.8 0.6 1.7 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.9 14.6 11.3 73.6 51.8 42.5 6.1 14.3 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.2 10.2 8.9 85.3 61.8 49.9 2.0 3.8 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------