***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-06.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 14.6 22.6 18.7 163.7 81.5 69.5 0.0 8.0 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 12.0 18.3 20.6 202.1 85.0 70.8 1.8 5.4 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 10.6 17.7 17.9 162.9 78.3 67.8 3.5 9.3 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 24.7 36.3 15.3 145.2 78.9 65.1 4.4 10.0 19.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 18.9 28.0 17.7 175.6 84.7 69.3 2.1 6.9 16.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 16.7 20.1 14.6 138.5 76.0 65.7 3.0 7.3 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 13.6 21.4 20.7 205.7 85.3 71.8 3.6 6.6 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 29.6 44.9 19.0 152.7 80.2 66.5 11.8 16.4 24.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 16.1 22.0 16.3 152.0 81.0 66.5 3.2 8.9 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 16.4 22.8 19.3 152.2 80.4 67.0 3.8 7.7 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 18.6 29.0 16.2 157.7 83.7 68.1 2.4 9.8 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 25.3 43.1 14.7 147.9 80.9 66.5 0.1 6.4 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 20.5 27.5 14.2 144.9 80.0 66.6 3.2 9.4 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 9.7 19.6 21.3 145.3 76.2 63.3 1.0 7.7 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.5 21.2 12.8 151.5 83.9 62.0 1.0 2.5 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 19.1 28.5 14.6 151.0 80.4 67.0 2.0 7.3 17.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 14.9 30.6 23.4 225.5 87.4 74.2 2.3 6.1 15.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 16.9 27.8 20.1 144.2 76.3 64.8 2.3 13.5 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 15.3 25.1 20.3 188.6 83.0 68.6 3.0 7.2 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 17.0 33.1 19.6 134.9 77.3 64.6 1.5 13.4 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 12.3 15.8 16.1 152.0 78.7 66.8 2.8 6.4 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 16.8 20.6 22.2 197.3 82.3 70.7 6.4 10.7 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 11.7 16.2 19.0 164.7 79.3 65.6 3.0 5.5 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 11.1 27.6 18.6 145.6 75.6 64.1 1.5 6.8 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 16.2 26.5 20.2 185.7 85.1 71.3 1.5 10.1 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 18.5 26.1 10.8 120.9 78.5 64.6 0.7 4.8 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 14.7 22.4 20.5 184.3 84.5 71.2 0.7 7.5 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 10.9 22.3 14.1 144.0 80.8 63.7 1.8 8.2 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 29.3 32.3 20.4 143.4 75.4 64.8 4.6 16.3 28.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 16.4 26.4 20.7 199.6 84.2 70.3 3.4 8.5 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------