***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-27.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 23.8 23.5 25.1 -0.3 45.1 45.2 22.9 23.5 24.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 23.0 23.4 24.6 -0.8 37.4 37.4 23.4 24.0 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 24.3 23.6 25.1 -0.6 39.6 40.0 23.4 23.9 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 16.9 17.1 23.2 0.5 59.8 56.7 16.2 16.7 17.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 23.6 23.9 23.5 -0.6 38.3 40.4 23.8 24.3 25.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 23.8 23.7 22.1 0.2 53.3 52.8 22.8 23.6 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 24.0 23.2 24.8 -0.5 44.6 42.9 23.0 23.7 24.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.3 12.9 22.0 -0.4 40.9 42.6 12.3 13.1 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 23.1 23.5 23.9 -0.8 34.3 37.7 23.5 23.9 24.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 24.0 23.3 22.6 -0.4 41.4 43.3 22.9 23.6 24.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 23.2 23.5 23.7 -0.9 33.6 36.4 23.5 24.1 24.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 23.7 22.7 23.2 -0.6 38.4 40.1 22.7 23.3 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 23.5 23.7 23.1 -1.0 31.8 34.2 23.8 24.5 25.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 23.1 23.2 23.4 -0.7 37.0 39.4 23.1 23.8 24.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 24.8 24.5 25.3 0.1 53.7 51.5 23.6 24.5 25.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 25.3 24.5 23.5 -0.6 40.0 40.7 24.5 24.9 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 23.6 23.0 24.4 -0.5 42.9 42.1 22.7 23.3 24.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 23.0 22.6 21.9 -0.3 44.6 45.0 22.4 22.7 23.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 22.8 23.4 24.7 -0.9 35.6 36.6 23.3 23.8 24.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 19.5 18.6 19.8 -0.4 41.0 42.7 18.2 19.2 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 24.2 23.5 24.7 -0.6 38.5 40.5 23.4 23.8 24.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 22.8 23.5 24.4 -0.5 41.5 42.2 23.2 24.0 24.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 23.0 23.5 24.9 -0.8 36.2 37.8 23.3 23.9 24.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 23.7 23.2 23.6 -0.6 39.6 41.0 23.0 23.3 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 24.2 23.8 23.7 -0.4 43.3 43.6 23.4 23.9 24.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 24.7 23.8 23.1 -0.3 42.7 44.6 23.3 24.5 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 24.0 23.6 24.4 -0.2 46.4 46.4 22.9 23.8 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 24.8 25.1 24.2 0.4 58.1 55.3 24.0 24.6 25.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.5 18.0 21.0 -0.5 39.9 41.6 17.8 18.2 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 22.8 23.4 24.8 -0.8 39.3 38.3 23.3 23.7 24.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------