***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2020.-13.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 26.0 26.6 26.7 1.6 71.3 66.2 24.0 25.2 26.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 25.9 26.4 26.3 1.2 66.8 61.8 23.8 25.5 26.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 26.4 26.0 26.8 1.4 69.6 64.2 23.9 25.1 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 19.5 20.4 24.6 2.1 79.7 70.4 16.2 17.9 18.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 25.8 26.4 25.1 1.4 66.0 62.8 24.0 25.3 26.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 25.6 26.2 23.5 2.0 77.7 69.9 21.9 23.8 25.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 26.1 26.0 26.4 1.4 68.6 64.5 23.6 25.4 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 15.4 15.7 23.7 1.6 72.6 66.1 11.8 13.5 15.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 26.4 26.4 25.8 1.4 68.5 63.9 23.7 24.9 25.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 26.1 26.4 24.4 1.7 74.0 67.2 23.4 24.3 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 25.5 25.9 25.4 1.3 65.3 62.0 23.5 25.0 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 25.5 25.5 24.8 1.4 67.5 63.5 22.5 23.3 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 26.3 26.1 24.8 1.2 64.4 61.5 23.5 24.6 26.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 26.0 26.7 25.5 1.7 72.3 67.0 23.9 24.5 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 26.8 27.6 26.9 2.1 79.6 70.2 24.2 25.5 26.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 27.5 26.9 25.1 1.4 69.5 63.9 24.0 25.6 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 25.5 26.0 26.0 1.4 68.1 63.6 23.2 24.4 26.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 25.3 26.1 23.7 1.9 76.5 68.7 22.7 23.1 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 25.6 26.2 26.5 1.2 67.1 61.9 23.4 25.2 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 21.5 22.2 21.7 1.8 75.3 68.3 17.9 19.7 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 26.6 25.9 26.5 1.6 70.4 65.4 23.8 25.5 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 26.3 26.8 26.1 1.5 70.1 65.1 23.6 25.0 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 26.3 26.6 26.8 1.4 69.8 63.7 24.0 25.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 25.7 26.1 25.6 1.8 75.3 67.7 23.5 24.2 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 25.5 26.4 25.3 1.5 68.9 64.9 23.6 25.2 26.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 26.4 26.3 24.6 1.5 69.3 65.4 22.5 25.1 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 26.0 26.1 26.0 1.7 71.9 66.8 23.7 25.1 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 26.9 28.2 25.7 2.3 82.0 71.6 24.0 25.2 26.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 20.9 21.4 22.9 1.7 74.3 67.2 17.5 18.7 19.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 25.4 25.9 26.5 1.2 66.6 62.6 23.6 25.0 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------