***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-06.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 22.7 24.8 26.5 0.1 52.3 49.8 23.6 24.7 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 22.9 23.2 25.7 -0.8 34.0 40.0 23.1 25.9 27.2 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 23.4 23.8 26.0 -0.7 40.4 41.7 23.1 25.7 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 18.3 18.9 24.4 1.0 65.8 60.1 16.8 17.7 18.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 23.8 25.0 24.9 -0.3 43.3 45.5 23.9 25.4 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 24.6 26.0 24.1 1.2 67.9 60.5 23.1 23.9 25.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 23.0 23.9 25.9 -0.4 42.0 44.2 22.6 25.6 26.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 12.2 13.3 22.9 -0.3 42.7 44.6 12.5 13.6 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 23.3 24.2 25.4 -0.5 42.8 43.5 23.2 25.2 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 23.0 24.1 23.6 -0.3 45.2 45.1 23.3 24.5 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 23.4 24.3 25.3 -0.6 39.4 42.0 23.5 25.1 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 22.8 23.9 24.4 -0.3 42.5 44.5 23.5 24.0 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 23.7 24.5 25.3 -0.4 39.2 42.8 24.4 25.3 26.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 23.4 23.3 24.4 -0.8 38.8 40.9 23.1 25.9 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 26.1 26.6 27.8 1.2 67.4 61.5 24.6 25.6 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 24.5 25.7 25.3 0.0 46.7 47.2 24.7 25.9 27.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 22.6 22.6 25.2 -0.6 38.3 42.2 22.2 25.1 26.2 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 22.5 22.9 22.4 -0.5 41.5 43.9 22.3 24.6 25.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 22.6 22.5 25.7 -1.0 33.2 39.0 22.5 25.5 26.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 18.2 19.3 20.8 -0.4 41.2 44.3 18.8 19.4 21.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 23.4 25.1 26.3 -0.2 47.2 46.8 23.2 25.2 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 22.9 23.7 25.2 -0.7 39.1 42.1 22.4 25.6 26.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 22.9 23.2 25.7 -1.0 38.1 39.7 23.0 25.5 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 22.8 23.8 24.6 -0.6 39.8 42.5 22.6 25.2 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 23.2 25.2 25.5 0.2 53.3 50.6 24.1 25.0 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 23.6 25.1 24.6 0.2 51.2 50.1 24.5 25.0 26.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 23.0 25.8 26.0 0.3 55.4 51.7 23.1 25.3 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 26.3 27.3 26.0 1.2 68.6 61.5 24.3 25.8 27.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 17.7 18.4 21.6 -0.7 39.2 42.0 17.4 19.7 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 22.8 22.9 25.9 -0.7 37.3 41.2 22.5 25.5 26.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------