***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-27.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 11.6 11.6 15.6 0.3 57.8 56.8 11.1 11.4 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 11.6 11.4 15.0 0.1 53.6 53.2 10.9 11.4 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 13.7 13.5 15.6 0.1 54.9 52.7 12.9 13.5 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 9.1 9.4 13.2 0.6 66.0 62.1 8.6 8.9 9.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.5 10.5 13.4 0.0 53.3 51.0 9.9 10.4 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 10.3 10.3 11.7 0.8 73.8 68.5 9.2 9.5 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 11.7 11.8 15.2 0.2 58.5 55.3 11.2 11.6 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 5.2 5.2 11.2 0.2 58.8 56.6 4.8 5.1 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 11.6 11.5 13.4 0.0 51.6 50.3 11.1 11.4 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 11.2 11.2 11.9 0.2 58.0 55.3 10.7 11.1 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 11.0 10.9 12.9 -0.1 53.7 50.0 10.3 10.9 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 9.7 9.7 12.1 0.1 55.4 53.1 9.2 9.6 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.6 11.7 0.0 54.9 52.1 9.8 10.3 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 11.6 11.8 13.3 0.1 55.2 54.1 11.2 11.4 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 12.3 12.6 15.0 0.5 65.3 60.3 11.5 12.2 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 11.6 11.7 12.5 0.2 57.4 54.6 11.1 11.4 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 11.7 11.9 14.8 0.2 56.9 55.4 11.3 11.6 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 10.3 10.3 11.2 0.1 56.6 54.7 9.5 10.1 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 11.6 11.5 15.0 0.0 51.3 50.9 11.0 11.5 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 6.5 6.5 9.4 0.2 56.2 54.7 6.0 6.4 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 11.0 11.0 14.8 0.1 54.6 53.7 10.5 10.8 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 11.0 10.8 14.8 0.0 51.8 51.8 10.3 10.8 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 11.1 10.8 15.0 -0.1 50.8 49.2 10.4 10.8 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 11.3 11.2 13.2 0.1 55.7 52.9 10.5 11.0 11.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 11.8 11.8 14.6 0.2 57.2 54.7 10.9 11.7 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.7 10.6 11.4 0.4 63.3 59.2 10.0 10.5 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 12.0 12.1 15.1 0.4 60.1 57.8 11.3 11.9 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 10.6 10.5 13.7 0.6 67.5 63.0 9.7 10.1 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 9.0 8.9 10.5 0.1 55.7 53.6 8.6 8.9 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 12.0 11.8 15.3 0.1 53.6 52.4 11.4 11.8 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------