***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-06.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 13.6 13.9 18.1 1.8 78.5 74.0 12.1 12.7 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 13.1 13.4 17.2 1.4 74.2 69.8 12.0 12.6 13.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 15.7 16.0 17.7 1.3 73.2 69.0 13.9 15.2 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 11.6 12.3 15.5 2.0 86.2 81.4 8.9 9.8 10.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 12.4 12.7 16.0 1.5 77.5 73.3 11.0 11.6 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 11.6 12.8 14.0 2.5 91.2 87.9 10.2 11.0 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 13.8 14.1 17.5 1.7 79.3 73.6 12.3 13.2 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 6.7 7.2 13.3 1.4 78.6 73.6 5.4 5.8 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 13.4 13.5 16.0 1.5 76.3 72.8 12.1 12.9 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 13.3 13.7 14.2 1.5 78.7 74.3 11.9 12.5 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 13.0 13.3 15.6 1.3 76.7 72.1 11.7 12.2 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 11.7 12.2 14.4 1.4 77.2 72.3 10.1 10.8 11.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 12.7 12.9 14.5 1.6 79.6 77.1 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 14.2 14.6 15.5 1.5 78.9 75.1 12.6 13.6 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 14.9 15.4 17.8 2.1 86.0 82.7 12.9 13.6 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 14.0 14.5 15.2 1.7 82.5 78.4 12.6 13.2 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 13.9 14.1 16.9 1.6 77.1 72.1 12.4 13.5 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 12.4 12.8 13.5 1.5 79.6 74.6 10.5 11.3 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 13.4 13.6 17.1 1.2 70.3 67.0 12.2 13.1 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 8.5 9.0 11.8 1.5 81.7 75.0 6.3 7.4 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 13.1 13.4 17.2 1.6 77.4 74.7 11.7 12.3 13.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 13.1 13.2 17.0 1.4 74.2 69.9 11.8 12.8 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 45 55 100 13.4 13.3 17.0 1.0 66.9 64.8 11.4 13.1 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 13.5 13.6 15.6 1.4 76.5 73.5 12.2 12.9 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 13.6 14.0 17.5 1.9 79.8 75.2 12.0 12.8 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 13.0 13.7 13.9 1.9 85.9 81.2 11.2 11.8 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 13.9 14.3 17.8 2.1 81.1 76.7 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 13.0 13.2 16.2 2.1 86.9 83.3 10.6 11.1 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 11.2 11.8 12.6 1.3 75.8 71.4 9.2 9.9 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 13.7 14.0 17.6 1.4 73.3 69.2 12.3 13.1 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------