***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2015.-27.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 65.1 68.9 44.8 140.0 75.6 63.4 29.4 51.1 62.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 57.2 59.5 47.3 130.3 73.9 60.1 30.0 41.3 54.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 62.2 70.8 45.6 134.1 72.7 62.7 28.5 46.7 59.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 58.8 75.9 49.7 133.7 73.4 62.7 32.3 52.2 71.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 45.6 57.9 49.6 131.5 72.0 61.7 33.3 42.0 55.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 43.4 61.7 59.0 130.3 73.3 60.4 23.4 36.3 48.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 53.8 60.5 47.8 133.7 74.1 60.7 32.0 39.3 53.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 78.4 101.3 51.6 129.1 70.8 60.1 54.2 67.8 82.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 44.3 51.8 50.7 137.0 71.7 63.1 30.7 40.7 50.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 53.1 62.7 55.0 130.8 69.5 61.2 31.7 48.6 59.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 44.3 57.8 43.0 130.5 72.2 59.9 34.5 39.4 51.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 49.4 63.3 39.7 125.2 70.1 58.1 27.5 42.3 62.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 45.7 49.2 43.8 116.8 63.4 55.2 30.9 40.0 51.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 61.0 65.7 56.8 121.0 68.2 60.1 39.1 52.1 65.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 50.4 61.9 45.8 138.4 78.3 63.3 20.1 28.7 36.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 40.5 46.2 42.0 121.1 67.2 56.4 25.7 35.4 46.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 48.1 52.6 45.9 122.4 67.7 57.5 31.6 45.0 52.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 68.6 76.9 60.8 123.8 67.5 60.8 42.4 64.9 76.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 64.2 69.6 46.4 127.7 73.6 60.2 30.3 47.3 57.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 71.2 79.1 67.0 123.1 69.4 60.0 51.6 67.4 78.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 52.5 65.5 46.1 138.7 71.4 63.8 35.7 47.6 58.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 50.4 57.1 45.6 115.3 64.7 56.0 30.9 44.7 57.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 47.8 55.9 46.0 123.1 70.2 60.3 26.1 40.6 46.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 60.5 72.4 54.2 125.5 70.3 61.4 35.8 52.9 65.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 50.9 63.8 49.8 130.7 71.7 62.9 37.2 47.6 60.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 40.3 46.1 39.7 124.8 69.4 58.9 29.4 35.6 40.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 57.5 65.0 49.8 136.5 74.0 62.8 35.9 42.5 60.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 40.4 63.7 47.8 133.1 75.3 60.7 24.6 31.1 42.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 92.7 116.3 62.3 123.4 67.5 61.2 60.5 80.9 111.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 55.2 58.6 47.3 135.2 75.3 61.5 26.2 41.6 49.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------