***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2015.-27.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9.1 22.3 8.0 137.2 79.9 60.6 2.4 5.8 14.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 7.2 17.0 8.6 128.0 80.2 58.0 1.9 4.9 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.5 24.4 8.5 150.2 81.0 60.0 3.5 6.8 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 17.7 25.6 8.3 134.3 75.7 64.1 2.4 6.7 12.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 11.2 13.2 8.6 137.7 74.8 61.5 1.6 4.9 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.6 6.5 10.7 115.7 71.8 57.2 0.8 3.1 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 5.4 13.8 8.7 129.9 76.6 57.3 2.1 2.8 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 18.8 19.7 9.7 141.6 76.7 58.7 4.5 9.5 12.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 12.1 16.8 9.2 150.7 78.3 60.7 1.7 3.2 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 16.8 22.0 10.0 144.8 77.2 60.0 1.1 6.7 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 9.7 11.0 7.3 132.9 75.6 60.6 1.0 3.3 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.0 11.0 7.4 131.9 76.7 58.1 1.0 4.3 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 6.7 9.7 8.2 116.4 73.0 56.3 1.2 3.7 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 8.1 18.9 10.7 130.4 76.9 59.2 1.3 4.9 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 45 55 100 9.9 16.6 7.4 137.9 79.5 64.9 1.1 2.8 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 4.3 9.0 7.2 122.5 75.2 59.7 1.8 2.8 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 5.4 9.7 7.9 106.8 71.7 54.9 0.9 3.3 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 13.3 15.9 11.9 150.5 77.1 59.8 2.2 5.3 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.1 22.2 8.3 129.5 81.3 59.1 1.9 4.1 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 12.6 24.6 14.1 148.5 78.1 58.5 3.2 8.7 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 14.7 23.4 8.4 152.0 80.9 61.8 2.2 4.8 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.7 12.3 7.5 98.4 70.7 55.3 0.6 5.8 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.7 25.2 8.3 131.8 80.9 60.0 2.7 4.6 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 13.3 18.2 10.6 150.0 77.9 60.3 1.8 5.0 9.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 9.1 15.3 9.6 144.0 79.4 61.5 2.6 7.8 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 6.3 9.5 8.0 126.2 72.5 58.6 1.0 3.2 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 8.3 18.5 9.3 138.2 79.2 59.9 3.6 5.9 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 9.8 13.4 7.5 128.0 76.2 63.9 0.3 4.8 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 14.7 33.0 12.9 153.8 77.9 58.9 4.2 8.9 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.4 19.3 8.8 139.4 81.5 58.6 1.1 4.9 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------