***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2015.-20.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 14.1 26.0 12.0 154.8 78.3 56.4 2.6 10.4 19.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 13.9 21.4 13.3 147.6 73.8 55.3 4.0 9.2 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.9 25.6 12.5 149.5 77.4 56.5 1.6 7.6 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 13.9 28.6 14.8 151.0 74.0 55.4 2.8 8.8 15.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.6 23.1 14.5 157.2 75.8 56.1 2.8 8.1 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 10.3 19.7 16.5 133.0 73.1 55.5 2.9 7.5 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 4.5 19.8 12.9 134.6 71.8 55.3 3.4 9.2 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 19.4 32.7 13.8 156.5 76.8 57.3 7.7 15.3 28.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.9 25.1 14.5 157.3 76.8 55.6 3.4 11.1 21.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.3 21.8 14.9 153.1 74.3 56.5 6.6 10.5 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.4 20.8 12.4 174.2 79.7 59.4 2.3 11.4 16.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 12.9 21.6 11.4 167.8 79.7 58.1 2.8 10.3 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.7 24.5 13.0 143.3 75.0 55.5 2.4 7.8 16.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.2 31.5 14.8 123.4 72.1 53.0 3.6 10.4 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.3 19.0 13.7 160.2 77.4 55.6 1.6 5.0 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.3 19.4 12.7 157.7 78.2 56.9 2.6 5.2 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 11.9 25.6 13.8 138.4 72.1 56.3 1.9 7.9 17.2 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 7.0 25.9 15.8 131.8 68.5 54.2 6.1 15.1 25.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.6 22.5 13.0 149.7 74.7 55.7 3.7 7.4 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 9.7 24.8 17.4 130.9 68.6 54.3 8.0 19.5 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.6 29.5 13.1 160.0 77.5 57.3 2.6 9.6 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 14.3 22.9 13.6 140.6 72.1 56.1 2.7 9.7 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 5.3 19.4 12.2 136.9 72.2 54.0 2.1 10.9 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.7 31.1 14.1 128.9 72.0 53.8 4.1 9.8 21.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 6.1 30.4 13.7 144.4 74.1 54.1 4.7 12.5 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.5 23.7 11.8 164.5 82.1 57.3 2.3 9.4 18.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.3 28.3 13.2 146.3 74.9 54.4 2.3 9.0 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.3 18.0 14.7 157.2 76.5 56.4 1.2 7.9 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.7 29.2 15.6 126.4 67.9 53.4 13.1 18.0 26.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 12.6 21.6 12.8 148.2 73.6 55.7 6.0 8.9 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------