***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2015.-13.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 12.1 18.7 14.8 184.5 83.6 65.6 0.6 1.8 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 14.8 23.4 14.5 182.5 85.2 65.9 1.8 4.3 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 13.9 24.8 14.3 168.9 81.6 64.2 1.2 3.2 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 16.1 30.4 18.6 207.4 86.6 66.9 1.0 6.7 13.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 11.3 19.7 18.5 197.8 83.8 66.1 1.4 3.0 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 10.0 14.5 24.9 203.0 82.2 66.0 1.4 3.4 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 12.7 23.7 15.4 198.8 86.8 66.6 0.8 4.0 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 21.1 27.7 19.9 167.7 76.1 63.3 2.3 9.8 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 13.5 21.7 18.0 190.7 81.5 65.1 1.0 3.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 12.4 15.9 20.5 176.6 77.8 64.4 2.7 5.1 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 12.1 18.6 17.2 188.7 81.5 65.3 0.3 3.3 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.5 12.2 15.6 166.7 75.4 62.8 1.7 7.1 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 9.2 12.2 18.0 177.3 77.2 63.6 0.2 3.4 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 24.7 32.3 18.0 156.9 77.8 63.7 2.1 3.3 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 8.7 18.2 17.5 217.3 87.2 64.5 0.2 1.9 3.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 9.5 12.8 17.2 181.7 79.5 64.1 0.4 4.6 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 17.8 30.6 14.1 179.4 82.5 65.7 1.6 3.3 13.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 15.1 19.1 20.9 150.8 74.9 62.4 1.8 5.1 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 16.9 27.8 14.1 173.9 84.8 65.7 1.3 5.4 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 20.6 21.1 23.0 144.1 72.5 61.6 4.4 10.4 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 11.4 21.3 15.4 187.5 83.7 65.3 1.6 5.2 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 15.0 20.2 13.9 161.9 79.0 63.0 2.5 6.4 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 17.7 25.5 14.2 164.9 81.4 65.0 1.3 3.4 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 16.2 18.5 17.6 151.9 77.2 61.9 1.4 2.6 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 10.2 28.7 17.0 178.2 86.5 66.0 1.3 3.4 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 7.7 11.2 15.0 192.1 78.7 66.0 0.3 1.8 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 12.8 28.9 16.7 182.5 85.6 65.1 1.7 3.0 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 8.4 16.5 18.6 208.6 86.0 64.9 0.6 1.7 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 27.3 30.7 20.8 143.0 73.4 61.4 6.1 14.3 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 10.8 30.3 14.7 183.8 85.9 66.0 2.0 3.8 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------