***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2015.-06.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 10.2 9.7 9.9 96.1 67.2 54.6 0.0 8.0 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.7 11.8 10.9 86.4 65.6 52.5 1.8 5.4 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 11.0 13.5 10.4 89.9 63.4 52.8 3.5 9.3 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 16.4 16.6 8.0 65.7 59.3 46.9 4.4 10.0 19.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.8 12.1 8.0 62.2 58.2 45.7 2.1 6.9 16.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 10.0 7.2 6.9 61.1 49.8 41.8 3.0 7.3 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 8.6 15.5 10.8 92.5 68.0 54.2 3.6 6.6 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 20.5 17.8 8.2 66.5 52.1 44.0 11.8 16.4 24.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.4 16.5 9.0 73.4 57.8 50.0 3.2 8.9 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 10.4 8.1 9.7 70.0 55.0 47.8 3.8 7.7 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 12.8 12.6 6.1 53.7 53.9 41.7 2.4 9.8 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 14.6 2.6 5.3 53.4 46.6 37.8 0.1 6.4 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 4.3 4.1 4.7 42.0 37.1 31.0 3.2 9.4 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 9.6 15.4 13.2 87.2 63.2 53.6 1.0 7.7 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 1.0 6.7 7.2 64.5 60.6 43.3 1.0 2.5 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.4 6.7 4.9 44.0 45.0 33.9 2.0 7.3 17.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 8.6 15.8 10.0 82.6 67.0 54.8 2.3 6.1 15.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 17.5 15.1 12.3 79.6 57.4 50.6 2.3 13.5 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.3 11.0 83.9 63.8 51.2 3.0 7.2 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 17.2 14.7 12.5 80.1 54.6 48.5 1.5 13.4 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 7.9 10.6 9.2 81.8 58.8 52.2 2.8 6.4 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 12.7 14.2 10.6 78.2 62.8 52.3 6.4 10.7 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.9 9.5 11.2 83.3 63.0 50.7 3.0 5.5 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 11.6 13.9 11.9 87.8 61.4 52.9 1.5 6.8 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.2 13.7 9.6 77.1 61.7 49.7 1.5 10.1 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.0 1.5 4.8 46.5 44.0 33.5 0.7 4.8 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.1 14.6 10.6 91.8 64.8 52.7 0.7 7.5 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.5 8.6 7.0 59.2 53.6 40.7 1.8 8.2 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 20.8 20.9 13.0 85.7 59.1 52.3 4.6 16.3 28.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.3 11.0 91.5 65.5 52.7 3.4 8.5 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------