***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2015.-27.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 23.3 22.9 22.9 -0.1 48.4 49.8 21.9 22.9 24.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 23.8 22.8 22.8 -0.3 45.7 48.1 21.8 23.2 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 24.2 23.1 22.8 -0.3 45.9 47.8 21.5 23.6 25.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 14.7 15.9 20.8 -0.4 47.2 46.7 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 24.9 24.2 21.1 -0.2 48.3 48.3 21.9 24.3 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 23.5 23.1 19.5 0.2 53.8 51.7 21.1 23.0 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 23.2 22.1 22.8 -0.2 45.4 48.7 21.5 22.6 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 13.5 13.1 20.1 0.3 53.8 52.6 10.5 12.9 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 24.0 22.8 21.6 -0.1 48.5 49.3 21.6 23.2 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 23.9 23.2 20.5 0.1 51.3 50.8 21.0 23.0 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 24.0 23.9 21.0 0.1 52.5 50.7 21.8 23.3 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 23.0 23.1 21.1 0.3 55.4 53.0 21.0 22.3 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 24.1 24.8 20.5 0.2 55.8 51.9 22.1 23.3 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 24.0 22.7 21.2 -0.3 48.1 48.6 21.2 23.1 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 21.9 23.2 21.2 -0.3 47.5 47.3 22.5 23.2 24.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 24.8 24.4 20.8 0.0 52.5 50.5 22.7 24.1 25.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 22.7 21.7 22.1 -0.6 41.8 45.4 21.4 22.1 24.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 22.9 22.2 19.9 0.0 49.4 50.6 20.3 22.3 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 23.4 22.1 22.9 -0.3 46.0 48.3 21.3 22.6 24.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 16.8 18.9 18.0 0.1 51.8 51.2 15.8 18.7 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 24.2 22.9 22.2 -0.2 47.7 48.5 21.4 23.5 25.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 21.6 22.2 22.1 -0.6 42.4 45.6 21.7 22.8 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 24.0 23.2 22.8 -0.2 48.6 49.2 21.5 23.3 25.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 23.6 22.6 21.2 -0.2 47.7 48.8 21.5 22.8 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 23.5 23.0 21.2 -0.2 49.7 48.4 21.8 23.0 23.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 24.2 23.6 20.5 0.1 51.9 51.0 21.7 23.6 24.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 23.4 23.0 22.0 -0.1 49.7 50.0 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 22.0 23.5 21.2 -0.3 47.4 47.5 22.2 23.6 24.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 18.2 17.2 19.0 0.0 49.1 50.3 15.9 17.3 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 23.5 22.5 23.0 -0.2 46.5 48.7 21.6 23.0 24.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------