***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2015.-20.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 21.8 23.5 23.4 -0.7 41.8 43.3 22.3 23.7 24.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 21.9 23.0 23.4 -0.8 42.3 42.2 22.0 23.6 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 22.6 23.4 23.3 -0.8 41.3 42.2 22.2 24.5 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 15.1 15.7 21.4 -0.9 37.2 41.2 15.5 16.6 17.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 22.6 24.2 21.7 -0.7 41.9 43.3 23.1 24.8 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 22.0 23.2 20.1 -0.3 46.4 47.8 22.3 23.6 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 21.9 22.8 23.3 -0.8 41.8 41.6 21.6 23.3 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 12.2 13.8 20.7 0.0 47.9 49.9 12.2 13.9 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 22.3 24.4 22.1 -0.6 42.0 44.6 22.9 24.7 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 22.1 23.7 21.1 -0.3 44.5 46.8 22.8 24.3 24.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 22.4 24.3 21.6 -0.4 43.9 46.7 23.4 24.6 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 22.2 23.7 21.7 0.0 47.6 50.4 22.3 23.9 25.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 23.2 24.7 21.2 -0.2 47.7 48.5 23.2 24.9 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 21.7 23.3 21.6 -0.7 43.2 43.1 22.6 23.5 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 22.9 23.6 21.9 -0.9 34.9 41.6 23.4 24.2 24.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 23.4 25.2 21.4 -0.4 44.2 46.9 24.3 25.3 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 20.8 21.9 22.6 -1.2 37.4 38.7 21.4 22.6 24.5 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 21.0 22.8 20.4 -0.4 43.6 46.5 22.0 23.0 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 21.6 22.9 23.5 -0.7 42.4 43.1 22.2 23.4 24.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 17.9 19.6 18.7 -0.1 46.3 48.8 17.8 19.7 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 22.7 24.1 22.8 -0.7 41.2 43.2 22.9 24.6 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 21.5 21.9 22.7 -1.0 37.7 40.3 21.3 23.5 25.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 21.8 22.7 23.3 -0.6 42.9 44.3 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 21.9 23.7 21.7 -0.7 42.3 43.8 22.7 23.9 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 22.1 23.3 21.7 -0.8 42.2 42.2 22.5 24.0 24.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 23.1 24.5 21.3 -0.2 46.3 48.1 23.0 24.8 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 22.3 23.5 22.5 -0.7 42.2 43.4 22.5 24.0 24.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 23.0 23.3 21.8 -0.8 36.5 42.4 23.3 24.0 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 17.2 19.1 19.5 -0.3 44.8 46.9 16.9 19.5 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 21.9 23.0 23.6 -0.7 43.4 42.7 21.9 23.5 24.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------