***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2015.-13.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 22.4 23.9 22.9 -1.9 28.9 31.4 24.0 25.2 26.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 22.5 22.9 22.9 -2.2 25.8 28.8 23.8 25.5 26.3 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 22.2 23.4 22.8 -2.2 23.7 28.8 23.9 25.1 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 15.3 15.8 21.3 -1.9 30.6 32.4 16.2 17.9 18.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 22.6 23.9 21.4 -1.8 28.6 33.4 24.0 25.3 26.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 21.7 22.5 20.0 -1.2 37.3 38.8 21.9 23.8 25.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 22.0 23.0 22.8 -2.2 27.3 28.8 23.6 25.4 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 11.3 12.2 20.3 -1.2 35.7 39.2 11.8 13.5 15.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 22.4 23.5 21.7 -1.8 29.5 33.2 23.7 24.9 25.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 21.9 23.4 20.5 -1.6 31.5 35.5 23.4 24.3 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 22.4 23.5 21.3 -1.4 33.0 37.4 23.5 25.0 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 21.0 22.7 21.4 -1.0 36.5 40.7 22.5 23.3 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 22.2 23.9 21.0 -1.1 36.2 39.9 23.5 24.6 26.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 22.1 23.7 20.9 -2.3 24.1 27.8 23.9 24.5 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 23.1 23.8 22.0 -1.7 31.7 34.1 24.2 25.5 26.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 22.9 24.3 21.3 -1.3 35.5 38.5 24.0 25.6 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 21.3 21.0 22.2 -2.6 20.5 26.2 23.2 24.4 26.0 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 21.2 22.6 19.6 -1.8 30.0 32.8 22.7 23.1 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 22.5 23.0 22.9 -2.2 26.3 29.1 23.4 25.2 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 17.2 18.2 18.0 -1.4 34.0 36.0 17.9 19.7 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 22.6 23.5 22.3 -2.0 26.3 31.3 23.8 25.5 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 22.1 21.9 22.2 -2.5 21.0 27.0 23.6 25.0 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 22.4 23.3 22.7 -2.1 26.8 29.4 24.0 25.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 22.2 22.9 21.0 -2.2 24.7 29.2 23.5 24.2 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 22.5 23.1 21.4 -1.9 29.4 31.8 23.6 25.2 26.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 22.6 22.8 21.2 -1.1 35.5 39.3 22.5 25.1 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 22.5 23.3 22.1 -1.8 29.1 32.0 23.7 25.1 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 23.3 24.0 21.8 -1.7 32.5 34.5 24.0 25.2 26.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 16.8 16.9 18.8 -1.8 30.8 32.9 17.5 18.7 19.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 22.3 23.3 23.0 -2.2 27.0 29.4 23.6 25.0 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------