***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2015.-06.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 28.0 29.0 29.6 4.1 90.0 87.7 23.6 24.7 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 27.9 28.8 29.1 3.3 83.8 82.0 23.1 25.9 27.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 27.4 29.3 29.5 3.8 89.6 85.5 23.1 25.7 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 20.2 21.8 27.7 4.2 91.8 88.7 16.8 17.7 18.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 28.0 29.9 28.9 4.7 93.0 90.3 23.9 25.4 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 27.0 28.9 27.2 5.3 94.5 93.3 23.1 23.9 25.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 27.2 28.2 28.9 3.2 81.8 81.7 22.6 25.6 26.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 15.8 18.7 27.6 5.4 94.4 92.7 12.5 13.6 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 27.4 29.4 29.6 4.8 93.1 90.3 23.2 25.2 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 27.5 29.8 28.3 5.2 93.8 91.6 23.3 24.5 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 28.2 29.7 28.9 5.0 92.7 91.2 23.5 25.1 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 27.4 29.9 28.8 5.6 94.9 93.3 23.5 24.0 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 27.9 30.2 29.0 5.4 93.8 92.7 24.4 25.3 26.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 27.0 28.5 27.3 3.2 82.2 80.7 23.1 25.9 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 28.0 29.4 29.8 4.1 91.9 89.2 24.6 25.6 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 3 97 100 28.7 31.2 29.1 5.3 94.4 92.5 24.7 25.9 27.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 27.0 27.4 27.5 2.2 77.4 74.1 22.2 25.1 26.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 8 92 100 25.9 28.2 26.6 4.5 91.4 88.2 22.3 24.6 25.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 27.6 29.0 29.3 3.6 86.5 83.7 22.5 25.5 26.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 21.8 25.0 25.2 5.0 94.4 91.3 18.8 19.4 21.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 6 94 100 27.4 29.6 30.1 4.5 91.9 89.1 23.2 25.2 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 27.6 28.4 27.4 2.2 79.2 74.3 22.4 25.6 26.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 27.5 29.0 29.4 4.0 89.5 85.9 23.0 25.5 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 26.5 29.1 27.8 3.8 87.9 84.5 22.6 25.2 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 27.5 29.6 28.6 4.2 91.5 88.1 24.1 25.0 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 27.6 30.1 28.4 5.4 95.1 93.4 24.5 25.0 26.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 27.3 29.3 28.8 4.0 90.4 87.5 23.1 25.3 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 27.8 29.6 29.0 4.4 92.4 89.8 24.3 25.8 27.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 21.4 23.2 25.7 4.4 91.1 87.9 17.4 19.7 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 27.6 28.9 29.6 3.7 87.5 85.0 22.5 25.5 26.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------