***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2015.-27.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 12.0 12.4 15.4 1.0 78.9 71.7 11.1 11.4 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 12.2 11.7 14.9 0.6 68.5 65.2 10.9 11.4 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 14.3 14.6 15.2 0.7 75.2 68.8 12.9 13.5 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 9.7 9.9 12.9 0.7 73.1 68.5 8.6 8.9 9.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 10.8 11.0 12.8 0.8 77.2 70.7 9.9 10.4 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 10.4 10.9 11.2 1.0 83.0 74.7 9.2 9.5 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 12.1 12.0 15.0 0.6 69.6 65.1 11.2 11.6 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 5.8 6.7 11.4 1.2 86.2 79.0 4.8 5.1 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 12.0 12.1 13.2 0.9 76.4 71.9 11.1 11.4 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 11.9 12.4 11.9 1.0 82.7 76.4 10.7 11.1 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 11.5 11.8 12.4 0.9 79.5 73.3 10.3 10.9 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 10.3 11.0 12.3 1.2 85.1 77.6 9.2 9.6 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 10.9 11.1 11.6 0.9 79.4 72.9 9.8 10.3 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 12.3 12.3 13.0 0.5 68.1 65.2 11.2 11.4 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 12.5 12.6 13.9 0.7 71.9 69.0 11.5 12.2 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 12.1 12.4 12.2 0.9 79.2 72.8 11.1 11.4 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 11.7 12.1 14.2 0.4 61.7 61.0 11.3 11.6 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 10.8 11.0 11.2 0.9 79.7 74.0 9.5 10.1 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 12.2 12.0 15.0 0.7 71.5 66.8 11.0 11.5 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 7.0 7.3 9.5 0.9 79.0 74.0 6.0 6.4 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 11.7 12.0 14.6 0.9 78.3 71.5 10.5 10.8 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 11.0 11.0 14.2 0.3 60.8 59.7 10.3 10.8 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 11.9 12.0 14.8 0.8 75.8 69.5 10.4 10.8 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 12.1 12.2 13.0 0.7 75.9 70.0 10.5 11.0 11.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 12.2 12.7 14.1 1.0 79.5 72.5 10.9 11.7 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 11.0 11.3 11.8 1.0 79.1 74.6 10.0 10.5 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 12.5 12.7 14.6 1.0 78.8 72.1 11.3 11.9 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 10.7 10.5 13.2 0.7 71.5 68.5 9.7 10.1 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 9.7 10.1 10.6 0.8 78.9 73.0 8.6 8.9 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 12.6 12.4 15.3 0.7 71.8 67.5 11.4 11.8 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------