***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2015.-20.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 10.3 11.8 14.1 -0.1 47.0 48.7 10.6 11.9 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 9.3 10.5 13.9 -0.3 42.9 46.0 10.2 10.7 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 14.3 13.1 14.0 -0.2 45.1 48.5 11.9 14.1 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.1 8.2 11.7 -0.2 44.1 46.7 8.0 8.7 10.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.3 10.8 11.5 -0.1 49.4 49.4 9.8 10.9 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 10.2 10.1 9.9 0.2 53.5 52.4 8.8 10.0 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.8 10.8 13.9 -0.3 41.8 45.1 10.0 11.5 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 6.0 5.7 10.2 0.4 55.1 56.2 4.1 5.6 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.4 11.9 0.0 49.0 50.7 10.4 11.5 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.5 10.6 0.2 51.3 53.5 10.1 11.4 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 11.3 11.1 11.1 0.1 51.9 52.3 10.0 11.0 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 10.1 10.2 11.0 0.3 55.1 55.4 8.4 9.8 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.5 10.4 10.3 0.2 52.2 52.5 9.3 10.3 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 10.4 11.4 11.9 -0.2 43.3 47.3 10.4 11.9 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.5 11.7 12.4 -0.3 44.4 45.9 11.1 12.2 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 12.2 11.9 10.8 0.1 51.2 51.5 9.9 11.9 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 10.4 10.8 13.2 -0.5 39.2 43.1 10.5 11.7 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.2 10.1 0.2 52.4 52.8 9.2 10.1 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 10.1 10.8 13.9 -0.2 43.6 47.4 10.3 11.5 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.1 6.5 8.6 0.2 53.6 52.7 4.9 6.4 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.1 13.2 0.0 47.6 50.0 10.2 11.5 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 9.3 9.6 13.3 -0.4 38.7 43.8 9.0 10.4 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 9.3 10.7 13.6 -0.1 45.4 48.8 9.4 10.7 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.0 11.9 0.0 48.1 50.0 9.9 11.1 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.5 11.9 12.6 -0.1 47.3 48.3 9.9 12.2 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 11.0 10.8 10.5 0.0 49.5 49.9 9.2 10.8 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.4 11.6 13.3 -0.1 47.3 48.6 9.9 11.8 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.4 9.5 11.9 -0.2 44.9 47.2 9.2 9.9 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.7 9.6 0.2 50.8 52.6 7.9 9.7 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.2 14.1 -0.3 43.9 46.7 10.5 11.4 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------