***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.08.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 36.3 52.7 28.3 72.3 41.4 37.8 32.2 53.5 62.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 34.2 45.3 27.0 73.7 47.3 39.6 33.1 46.3 58.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 35.6 40.6 30.7 78.3 41.8 40.0 29.9 48.6 65.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 31.8 41.6 32.5 77.9 45.3 40.0 36.0 42.3 77.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 31.2 41.2 31.5 77.2 46.5 40.0 31.7 43.7 58.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 26.2 34.4 36.0 77.8 41.7 40.1 27.8 37.3 53.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 32.1 37.7 26.0 69.0 40.4 36.9 33.2 45.4 54.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 56.0 72.2 38.0 86.9 50.4 43.7 56.2 71.8 95.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 33.1 44.0 35.5 83.3 47.3 42.2 33.8 44.8 53.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 35.5 50.4 40.3 86.6 50.0 43.4 32.5 50.4 63.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 27.5 39.2 31.2 77.9 45.2 40.1 35.3 43.8 59.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 31.6 43.5 30.3 80.7 45.1 41.5 33.3 48.0 58.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 30.9 37.8 30.1 73.5 41.6 38.8 35.0 40.0 52.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 42.3 56.0 40.9 87.2 49.9 43.9 45.5 56.3 71.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 20.5 28.3 30.4 81.4 49.3 42.0 22.8 28.7 37.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 24.9 31.8 29.8 74.2 42.3 38.5 28.2 36.5 51.2 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 29.1 38.5 25.7 67.3 42.0 36.4 35.7 44.8 54.8 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 44.8 69.0 44.9 87.6 51.1 43.9 44.1 68.0 72.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 32.7 45.2 28.8 78.3 50.4 41.6 34.8 44.9 65.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 54.5 66.3 48.7 91.7 50.8 45.3 53.2 66.2 78.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 30.2 43.1 32.2 79.4 43.4 41.0 28.4 49.2 58.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 30.6 39.5 29.1 74.7 45.7 39.7 37.0 43.4 57.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 34.4 41.2 30.7 81.5 51.3 42.1 33.0 40.6 55.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 43.7 56.7 38.7 83.3 47.9 42.1 38.8 56.9 67.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 35.8 45.1 32.4 76.3 44.2 40.1 41.1 48.8 58.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 28.1 33.5 27.8 75.4 44.1 40.2 28.9 35.1 39.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 30.6 45.6 30.2 73.5 42.5 38.7 40.7 49.8 60.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 21.6 33.7 31.3 79.8 47.6 40.6 24.6 35.4 38.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 67.5 95.1 46.9 89.0 49.5 44.2 63.8 95.3 115.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 30.5 35.9 27.6 74.3 45.0 39.3 29.0 39.9 50.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------