***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9.6 15.2 8.9 101.1 66.7 53.7 1.4 7.2 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.0 13.1 9.3 107.2 69.5 48.6 1.9 6.4 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.4 17.2 9.8 115.0 71.3 55.9 2.3 6.8 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 2.9 21.8 9.7 117.9 77.4 52.6 2.5 6.7 13.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 1.9 18.1 9.5 118.2 77.2 52.8 0.5 4.2 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.5 12.5 10.3 120.0 72.3 53.6 1.6 8.0 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 8.8 13.0 8.5 95.8 63.9 48.7 2.4 4.9 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.6 23.6 10.9 141.5 75.4 58.3 2.6 7.7 15.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.4 20.1 10.3 119.8 76.3 55.4 0.5 5.1 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.9 22.9 11.5 133.7 76.9 58.3 1.1 4.4 20.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.9 17.8 9.3 129.6 76.8 55.9 0.5 2.2 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.0 12.4 9.2 137.3 75.3 56.6 0.2 5.4 11.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.0 18.9 9.9 121.4 76.1 54.0 0.3 5.8 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 3.8 26.8 13.4 129.7 76.2 55.9 1.7 7.7 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 1.1 16.9 9.5 116.1 74.5 52.0 0.8 2.3 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 5.4 12.9 9.6 125.2 77.6 52.8 1.3 2.8 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.4 11.6 8.8 92.5 66.1 47.5 1.3 2.9 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 7.5 16.4 12.4 121.3 74.9 56.6 1.0 4.1 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 1.5 22.3 9.9 113.6 72.3 51.6 1.4 3.2 17.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.5 19.0 14.3 129.9 73.8 56.6 0.9 9.4 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 2.3 20.2 9.6 114.5 75.8 55.0 1.8 4.9 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.7 12.6 10.0 97.5 68.1 48.3 2.0 7.8 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.3 18.2 10.3 116.7 75.3 55.2 2.4 4.6 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.6 21.7 11.3 114.7 73.6 55.5 1.1 7.4 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.3 17.1 9.7 106.6 71.6 52.8 1.6 7.0 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.1 18.5 8.2 110.4 72.1 52.6 0.6 4.8 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.7 12.3 9.2 99.6 67.9 52.4 1.2 5.3 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 1.4 20.1 9.8 126.3 78.3 52.8 0.2 2.9 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 14.2 22.8 13.2 124.3 73.3 56.4 4.2 9.6 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.1 10.3 9.4 106.4 66.5 51.6 0.8 4.3 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------