***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.09.2016.-18.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 5.3 22.5 8.6 111.8 68.8 49.5 3.8 11.5 20.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.0 13.9 7.6 95.3 62.9 46.5 4.0 7.5 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.1 15.2 9.3 128.7 69.4 52.5 2.6 9.6 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.1 28.0 10.4 125.9 75.9 50.6 2.7 8.6 13.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.5 24.8 10.2 128.4 74.3 50.3 3.0 9.3 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.0 14.6 9.8 103.3 71.6 50.1 1.4 3.8 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 13.0 13.2 7.6 97.2 65.8 49.4 3.2 7.1 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 21.1 30.4 11.2 134.4 70.9 53.1 8.7 17.9 27.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 13.7 23.7 11.8 142.2 74.2 52.0 2.8 10.3 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.5 19.4 12.8 139.6 73.1 53.0 5.2 12.6 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.8 16.9 9.4 118.2 72.8 48.6 1.6 7.9 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.0 13.8 8.7 122.2 73.3 51.9 2.6 8.3 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.4 15.7 7.7 98.9 70.0 51.4 2.1 5.6 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 17.5 20.9 11.4 116.8 63.7 50.2 3.5 12.4 22.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 1.8 12.1 9.4 118.6 73.4 49.5 1.4 3.8 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.3 8.2 102.2 69.4 50.3 2.6 5.3 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.6 18.9 7.2 80.5 62.6 45.9 3.2 7.8 19.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 16.1 31.4 14.5 144.8 74.4 53.6 6.9 10.6 18.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 12.7 13.6 8.1 102.4 63.3 47.6 3.5 8.5 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 16.3 27.9 14.6 150.7 74.1 55.7 7.8 12.4 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 14.7 30.9 10.3 136.3 74.3 51.7 2.6 8.8 20.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.5 15.7 8.5 90.8 65.1 45.9 2.2 7.8 16.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 11.7 15.8 8.6 111.1 62.8 49.7 4.7 8.9 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.8 30.3 12.1 132.3 71.7 50.7 3.8 9.5 23.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 18.2 31.7 9.6 117.5 73.3 50.9 2.2 12.5 19.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 6.2 15.8 7.8 120.3 75.2 55.1 1.2 3.5 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.1 26.0 8.9 108.9 69.7 49.8 1.8 8.9 20.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.1 16.2 9.9 118.9 74.2 49.5 2.3 6.5 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 25.6 35.0 14.5 141.1 72.6 52.6 10.8 17.4 33.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 11.9 14.1 8.1 108.0 64.0 49.8 4.3 9.1 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------