***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.09.2016.-11.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 0.9 5.3 8.5 75.8 59.6 43.9 0.6 2.5 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 1.3 3.7 7.2 67.5 54.2 39.7 1.4 3.1 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 1.2 3.9 8.6 74.0 59.0 44.3 1.5 2.8 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 4.7 20.2 9.3 79.1 65.9 47.7 3.2 12.1 20.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.5 8.6 9.1 71.3 58.7 44.1 2.5 5.9 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.9 7.7 11.7 88.4 62.5 47.0 1.6 7.0 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 1.9 5.8 7.7 69.6 56.7 42.0 1.1 4.4 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.6 22.0 11.1 80.8 59.1 48.3 8.6 17.7 23.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 2.6 10.2 9.6 74.8 61.2 45.1 1.6 6.1 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.5 9.8 11.1 77.3 58.5 47.1 3.2 7.3 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 1.9 7.2 9.8 72.3 55.9 43.0 0.7 4.4 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.3 9.9 9.6 78.8 57.4 45.1 5.5 9.3 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.8 6.8 10.4 83.5 54.5 43.6 2.8 6.3 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 2.2 5.6 11.3 85.2 58.9 46.1 2.1 3.9 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 0.8 5.9 8.9 92.5 68.7 48.0 0.3 1.9 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.2 10.4 9.7 80.4 60.4 44.3 1.5 7.3 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.2 3.9 7.2 70.0 56.0 40.9 1.1 2.6 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 4.6 11.2 11.5 75.5 55.2 46.1 2.9 10.6 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 1.5 4.2 7.6 71.9 55.0 41.4 1.3 3.7 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.0 16.7 13.2 83.0 60.8 48.9 4.8 13.4 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 2.1 7.4 9.2 75.0 61.9 44.5 1.8 5.2 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.8 8.9 7.5 71.2 53.3 42.4 1.8 6.6 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 1.2 3.5 8.4 79.3 55.9 43.8 1.0 2.8 4.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 2.3 4.8 10.2 75.8 55.8 44.7 1.5 4.6 10.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 1.5 6.1 10.3 82.9 61.4 45.9 0.9 3.8 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 1.9 5.9 9.1 69.7 51.8 39.9 1.9 5.3 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 1.1 5.6 9.6 80.3 60.1 44.6 1.5 2.7 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 1.1 11.4 8.8 85.3 66.3 47.6 0.9 2.7 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.2 15.2 12.7 79.1 56.8 46.8 9.7 13.9 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 1.2 3.4 7.8 70.3 56.4 41.8 1.3 2.8 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------