***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.08.2016.-04.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 2.0 3.7 2.3 20.3 32.1 25.3 3.8 7.2 15.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 5.3 8.5 2.8 30.8 42.0 29.4 4.9 12.4 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 4.4 7.3 2.9 24.7 38.9 29.8 5.6 13.8 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 2.3 3.2 3.0 22.7 33.3 24.6 3.2 7.6 17.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 2.5 3.3 2.7 22.4 33.3 25.3 3.3 8.0 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 2.4 4.9 4.1 27.8 42.6 26.7 2.7 6.3 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 3.0 5.3 2.2 22.2 35.1 26.9 5.2 6.6 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 8.5 11.0 4.7 34.2 40.4 30.1 8.3 17.6 28.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 3.6 7.0 3.8 29.4 40.6 28.6 6.9 10.1 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 4.8 7.6 4.9 33.9 40.5 29.5 6.1 10.1 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 2.8 4.9 2.7 23.6 37.7 25.5 4.0 6.9 16.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 3.8 5.3 2.8 24.2 37.8 26.8 2.1 10.3 20.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 3.6 3.4 2.1 16.6 33.5 21.8 3.4 9.7 21.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 6.3 10.7 4.8 35.5 41.8 33.0 8.1 12.8 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 1.0 1.8 2.6 22.2 39.0 22.3 0.2 3.6 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 2.0 2.6 2.3 18.7 33.5 23.5 2.5 6.2 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 4.4 7.4 2.5 26.7 32.5 27.4 7.5 9.6 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 4.4 7.9 6.5 41.5 41.2 31.9 4.4 11.7 16.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 5.5 9.2 3.2 33.6 45.0 31.1 7.2 11.1 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 6.6 11.3 6.5 39.9 37.3 30.5 9.0 15.9 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 2.8 5.3 3.2 25.5 38.0 28.2 4.1 6.8 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 9.9 12.6 3.1 35.5 41.2 30.6 11.8 14.0 16.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 5.0 11.4 3.4 32.6 44.1 32.1 7.2 13.1 20.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 4.5 9.8 5.0 36.2 42.5 32.5 5.1 12.0 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 3.1 1.8 2.8 21.7 35.7 28.0 1.8 8.9 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 2.6 4.3 2.8 28.1 41.4 27.9 0.5 6.9 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 3.0 1.8 2.5 21.5 33.9 26.2 1.5 10.5 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 1.4 2.2 2.8 21.5 33.3 23.4 2.1 4.9 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 6.5 13.7 6.4 41.2 40.2 31.7 8.5 17.8 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 4.3 9.0 2.4 24.4 39.5 28.4 5.1 10.2 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------