***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.08.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 24.7 24.8 25.2 0.8 68.9 64.8 23.1 23.7 24.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 25.4 25.4 25.6 1.0 75.7 67.9 23.4 24.5 24.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 25.1 24.8 25.6 1.0 72.9 66.5 23.7 24.3 24.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 18.1 18.4 23.4 1.4 77.1 69.9 16.5 17.3 17.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 25.6 25.2 24.0 1.2 72.9 68.0 24.1 24.6 25.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 24.5 24.3 21.7 1.2 72.3 67.6 23.2 23.7 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 24.9 24.8 25.4 0.9 73.1 66.5 23.1 24.2 24.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 13.8 13.8 22.1 1.2 70.6 67.5 13.0 13.4 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 25.3 24.8 24.4 1.2 73.5 68.3 23.9 24.2 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 25.0 24.7 22.8 1.1 71.1 67.1 23.3 23.9 24.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 25.5 25.2 24.1 1.3 72.9 69.3 23.8 24.4 24.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 24.6 24.3 23.4 1.3 71.1 68.4 23.2 23.7 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 25.8 25.9 23.3 1.2 72.4 67.9 24.2 25.0 25.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 25.0 25.1 23.8 0.9 72.3 66.6 23.7 24.1 24.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 25.8 26.6 25.1 1.5 80.0 72.0 24.2 24.8 25.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 26.1 26.2 23.8 1.4 74.9 70.1 24.9 25.4 25.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 24.5 24.7 25.5 1.3 77.7 71.5 22.5 23.8 24.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 23.9 23.8 22.0 1.0 70.6 66.2 22.6 23.1 23.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 25.1 25.5 25.8 1.2 76.8 69.5 23.3 24.1 24.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 20.0 20.1 20.0 1.1 72.5 67.1 19.0 19.3 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 25.0 24.7 25.1 1.0 70.1 65.5 23.9 24.2 24.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 25.4 25.7 25.5 1.3 78.2 70.8 23.3 24.3 24.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 25.3 25.4 25.9 1.5 76.7 72.0 23.4 24.3 24.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 24.8 24.4 23.9 1.1 72.5 67.2 23.6 23.9 24.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 25.1 25.1 23.9 0.9 70.0 65.3 23.5 24.0 25.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 25.2 25.4 22.8 1.1 71.2 66.1 23.8 24.6 25.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 25.0 24.7 24.5 0.9 70.0 65.6 23.2 24.2 24.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 25.5 25.8 24.2 1.5 77.6 70.9 24.4 24.8 25.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 19.3 19.2 21.2 1.0 70.6 66.0 18.1 18.7 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 25.2 24.8 25.5 0.8 71.2 65.1 23.4 24.2 24.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------