***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 21.6 23.1 22.9 -0.1 53.7 51.1 21.6 23.1 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 24.3 23.9 23.3 0.1 53.3 52.0 21.9 23.8 24.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 24.4 24.4 23.4 0.0 55.0 52.2 22.1 23.8 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 14.7 17.1 21.3 0.3 57.5 54.6 15.4 16.5 17.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 24.8 25.2 21.7 0.2 55.1 53.1 22.7 24.3 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 21.3 24.0 19.7 0.2 56.8 53.9 21.7 23.9 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 23.7 23.2 23.1 -0.1 51.7 51.4 21.4 23.1 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 11.5 13.3 20.2 0.2 52.3 52.0 11.7 13.2 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 22.3 24.4 21.9 0.1 55.7 52.5 22.6 24.0 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 21.6 24.0 20.8 0.2 53.7 52.2 21.9 23.6 24.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 24.7 24.9 21.6 0.3 57.3 53.8 22.3 24.3 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 23.7 23.5 21.3 0.2 54.1 52.6 21.5 23.2 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 22.8 25.0 20.6 0.0 54.0 52.1 22.6 24.8 25.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 24.5 24.1 21.5 0.0 50.9 50.6 21.9 24.0 25.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 24.5 24.2 22.2 0.4 58.5 55.5 22.9 24.0 25.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 25.6 25.8 21.4 0.3 57.2 54.3 23.1 25.1 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 23.1 22.8 23.2 0.3 55.7 53.9 21.5 22.6 23.3 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 21.0 23.6 20.2 0.1 51.8 51.5 21.1 23.1 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 23.9 23.3 23.5 0.1 53.1 52.6 21.8 23.2 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 17.3 19.0 18.0 0.1 51.0 51.0 17.4 19.0 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 24.7 24.4 22.6 0.0 54.6 51.6 22.2 24.3 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 24.0 23.6 23.0 0.2 54.3 53.4 21.8 23.4 24.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 24.1 23.5 23.5 0.2 53.5 53.0 21.9 23.4 24.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 24.2 24.0 21.6 0.1 53.3 51.7 21.7 23.7 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 21.6 23.6 21.4 -0.1 54.3 51.2 22.4 23.4 24.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 22.1 24.5 20.9 0.1 54.4 52.4 22.9 24.2 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 21.8 23.7 22.1 -0.1 54.2 50.8 22.0 23.5 23.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 24.7 24.8 21.8 0.4 57.6 55.6 22.8 24.3 25.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.2 19.1 19.3 0.0 52.1 50.8 17.2 18.7 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 23.9 23.4 23.2 -0.1 52.6 51.3 21.6 23.3 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------