***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.09.2016.-18.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 25.0 25.3 24.5 0.1 58.1 53.4 21.8 24.7 25.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 25.1 25.7 25.0 0.5 65.5 57.1 23.0 24.7 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 25.2 25.5 25.0 0.3 60.2 55.4 23.1 24.9 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.9 18.9 23.0 0.7 61.6 58.6 15.4 17.3 19.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 25.9 25.9 23.3 0.5 57.6 56.5 23.0 25.5 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 24.8 25.1 21.0 0.6 58.1 55.1 23.0 24.4 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 24.5 25.2 24.8 0.3 62.5 55.9 22.9 24.0 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 12.1 14.5 21.6 0.6 60.2 56.4 12.3 14.1 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 25.5 25.7 23.4 0.4 58.3 56.1 23.0 25.1 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 25.0 25.0 22.2 0.5 59.2 56.2 23.3 24.6 25.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 25.6 26.1 23.1 0.7 58.5 57.1 23.4 25.2 26.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 25.0 25.3 22.8 0.6 59.5 56.4 22.3 24.8 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 26.1 26.1 22.0 0.5 58.4 54.9 23.7 25.6 26.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 22.5 25.1 23.0 0.4 61.1 55.6 23.3 24.5 25.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 25.7 26.4 23.9 0.9 64.3 59.7 23.2 25.4 26.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 26.6 27.3 22.8 0.7 58.8 56.9 23.6 26.3 27.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 24.1 24.9 25.0 0.7 68.9 59.4 21.6 23.6 24.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 21.6 24.0 21.5 0.4 56.6 55.2 22.5 23.7 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 24.7 25.4 25.2 0.6 66.7 58.0 23.2 24.2 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 18.1 20.7 19.4 0.5 57.9 55.9 18.2 20.2 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 25.3 25.8 24.1 0.3 56.8 54.6 23.1 25.0 26.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 24.7 25.4 24.9 0.7 68.4 58.9 22.7 24.3 25.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 25.5 25.5 25.1 0.7 67.1 58.9 23.0 24.5 25.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 22.7 25.0 23.0 0.4 59.3 55.9 22.9 24.6 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 25.0 24.9 22.9 0.2 56.3 54.4 22.0 24.6 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 25.5 25.7 22.5 0.7 60.3 56.5 24.1 24.9 26.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 25.0 25.0 23.6 0.1 56.0 53.6 22.3 24.6 25.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 25.9 26.2 23.4 0.8 62.5 59.0 23.7 25.4 26.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 17.5 19.9 20.7 0.4 56.2 54.8 17.5 19.6 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 24.7 24.9 24.8 0.3 60.5 55.2 23.2 24.3 25.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------