***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.09.2016.-11.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 24.4 25.7 25.7 1.2 67.5 64.7 23.6 23.9 25.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 25.9 26.4 26.2 1.4 72.0 66.2 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 25.7 26.0 26.1 1.3 73.3 65.4 23.2 24.7 25.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 19.3 19.4 23.9 1.8 73.7 68.6 15.4 16.8 18.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 26.7 27.2 24.7 1.7 73.2 66.8 23.4 24.1 25.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 24.8 25.5 22.2 1.7 74.2 67.6 22.0 23.0 25.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 25.3 25.9 25.9 1.3 70.2 65.8 23.2 24.0 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 14.9 15.2 22.6 1.6 72.6 65.3 11.3 13.1 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 26.2 26.5 25.2 1.7 74.4 67.1 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 25.6 26.0 23.4 1.6 72.2 65.2 22.6 24.0 25.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 26.4 26.9 24.8 1.8 72.5 67.5 23.0 23.9 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 25.3 25.5 23.9 1.8 73.8 67.2 22.0 23.2 25.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 26.3 27.0 24.1 1.8 74.7 67.8 23.4 24.3 26.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 24.8 25.7 24.3 1.2 68.9 62.7 23.4 24.4 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 26.4 26.8 26.0 2.0 77.5 70.9 23.3 25.2 26.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 27.0 27.6 24.5 1.9 74.0 68.7 24.1 24.4 26.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 25.0 25.5 26.0 1.6 74.2 68.3 23.1 23.7 25.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 24.6 25.2 22.4 1.4 70.6 63.7 22.0 22.9 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 25.6 25.8 26.4 1.5 74.8 67.2 23.2 24.8 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 21.4 21.3 20.4 1.5 71.6 64.5 17.9 19.3 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 25.9 26.2 25.7 1.4 73.2 65.2 23.1 24.6 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 25.7 25.8 26.0 1.6 74.0 67.6 23.5 24.8 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 25.8 26.2 26.5 1.8 77.3 68.9 23.2 24.8 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 25.1 25.8 24.4 1.4 71.7 64.6 23.1 23.5 25.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 26.2 26.2 24.5 1.4 72.0 66.0 23.3 24.1 25.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 26.0 26.4 23.3 1.7 74.4 67.2 22.8 24.1 25.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 25.8 26.3 25.1 1.3 70.4 65.8 23.1 24.1 25.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 26.4 26.8 24.9 2.0 75.1 69.4 23.1 24.9 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 20.2 20.2 21.6 1.4 69.7 63.4 17.4 18.7 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 25.8 25.8 26.0 1.2 70.3 64.5 22.8 24.4 25.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------