***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.08.2016.-04.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 27.6 28.0 27.6 2.1 79.4 75.5 24.3 26.3 27.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 27.8 28.3 28.0 2.2 76.9 75.0 24.4 25.8 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 27.4 27.8 27.8 2.2 76.0 73.9 24.5 25.5 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 21.0 21.5 25.4 2.6 79.5 78.6 17.1 19.1 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 28.2 28.5 26.5 2.5 78.4 76.8 24.7 26.9 27.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 27.4 27.8 23.8 2.2 80.2 76.6 23.7 26.0 26.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 27.5 27.9 27.7 2.1 77.9 74.4 24.2 25.7 27.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 16.5 16.6 24.1 2.3 77.3 75.5 13.4 14.4 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 27.3 27.5 27.3 2.7 78.8 77.5 24.3 26.1 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 27.2 27.2 25.0 2.3 76.2 74.6 24.0 25.8 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 27.7 28.1 26.8 2.6 80.6 77.8 24.3 26.2 27.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 27.3 27.8 25.5 2.5 81.2 78.3 24.1 25.3 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 28.4 29.1 26.3 2.7 82.5 79.4 24.6 26.3 27.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 27.6 28.1 26.4 2.3 75.7 73.2 24.0 25.5 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 28.3 28.7 28.3 2.8 81.4 80.4 25.3 26.6 27.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 29.2 29.8 26.5 2.8 82.9 79.9 25.2 27.2 28.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 27.1 27.5 27.8 2.7 80.9 78.7 23.5 25.5 26.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 26.3 26.6 23.9 2.2 75.3 72.9 23.2 25.0 26.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 27.8 28.2 28.3 2.5 78.0 76.6 23.8 25.8 26.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 22.4 22.4 22.1 2.3 75.1 74.6 19.5 20.7 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 27.7 28.0 27.8 2.3 78.5 74.4 24.2 26.4 27.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 27.8 28.2 28.0 2.7 79.2 78.1 23.7 25.8 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 27.8 28.3 28.6 3.1 81.3 79.9 23.7 25.4 27.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 27.1 27.3 26.3 2.3 77.0 73.8 23.7 25.5 26.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 28.0 28.3 26.6 2.3 78.5 75.3 24.5 26.4 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 27.9 28.2 24.6 1.9 76.0 74.2 24.3 26.4 27.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 27.5 27.9 27.1 2.3 79.5 76.4 24.2 26.1 27.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 28.6 29.2 26.7 2.7 81.0 79.7 25.1 27.0 27.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 21.5 21.8 23.3 2.2 74.2 73.1 18.9 19.7 21.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 27.6 28.1 27.8 2.0 75.3 72.8 24.0 25.7 27.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------