***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.08.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 11.7 11.8 15.2 0.6 64.5 63.5 11.2 11.5 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 44 56 100 12.0 12.2 14.9 0.7 71.0 67.2 11.1 11.5 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 13.9 14.3 15.4 0.6 67.7 65.2 13.1 13.8 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 10.1 10.2 13.1 1.0 74.1 72.0 8.5 9.3 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 11.0 10.9 13.4 0.8 70.4 68.3 10.4 10.6 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 10.2 10.3 11.2 0.8 70.4 70.1 9.3 9.7 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 12.2 12.2 15.0 0.6 67.5 64.6 11.3 11.8 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 5.7 5.7 11.3 0.9 73.2 70.5 5.0 5.3 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 11.9 12.0 13.4 0.7 68.3 67.0 11.1 11.7 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 11.7 11.9 12.0 0.8 69.7 68.5 11.1 11.2 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 11.5 11.7 13.0 0.9 72.7 70.3 10.6 11.1 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 10.1 10.3 12.1 0.9 72.9 70.3 9.6 9.7 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.6 11.0 11.5 0.6 65.2 65.2 10.0 10.4 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 12.5 12.4 13.2 0.5 66.8 63.7 11.4 11.9 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 12.9 13.0 14.6 1.0 76.8 72.3 11.9 12.5 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 12.1 12.2 12.4 0.8 72.3 69.5 11.3 11.8 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 12.4 12.6 14.8 0.9 77.7 71.4 11.4 12.1 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 10.6 10.5 11.4 0.7 69.0 67.0 9.9 10.1 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 12.2 12.4 15.1 0.8 71.3 68.7 11.0 11.8 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 6.9 7.1 9.5 0.8 73.0 69.8 6.0 6.5 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 11.2 11.3 14.7 0.6 64.7 64.2 10.9 11.0 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 11.6 11.9 15.0 0.9 76.5 70.9 10.6 11.0 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 11.9 12.0 15.2 0.9 74.7 71.3 10.6 11.1 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 11.5 11.9 13.2 0.6 67.0 65.6 10.8 11.3 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 11.9 12.0 14.1 0.7 65.9 65.0 11.2 11.8 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.9 11.0 11.0 0.6 67.5 63.3 10.1 10.7 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 12.1 12.6 14.6 0.6 65.8 64.3 11.6 11.9 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 10.7 10.8 13.4 1.0 76.4 71.6 9.8 10.4 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 9.5 9.7 10.8 0.7 69.8 67.7 8.7 9.1 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 45 55 100 12.6 12.7 15.1 0.6 67.6 64.4 11.4 12.1 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------