***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9.7 11.1 13.6 0.0 58.9 51.3 9.8 10.9 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 11.2 12.0 13.3 0.1 61.0 52.6 10.0 10.7 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 11.8 13.6 13.8 0.0 56.7 51.8 12.2 12.9 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 7.3 9.0 11.1 0.2 58.6 53.7 7.1 8.3 10.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 8.9 10.0 11.3 0.2 57.4 52.9 9.0 9.8 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.3 9.5 0.3 58.2 55.4 8.3 9.0 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.8 12.2 13.5 0.0 62.2 52.5 10.1 11.6 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 3.9 5.6 9.5 0.2 55.9 54.6 4.6 5.3 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 9.8 11.5 11.5 0.1 57.3 52.3 10.0 11.0 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 9.6 10.7 10.2 0.2 56.4 53.6 10.0 10.4 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 9.1 10.6 10.8 0.3 57.1 54.2 9.8 10.1 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 7.8 9.4 10.1 0.3 55.6 54.5 8.2 9.1 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.2 9.4 0.2 54.0 53.1 8.8 10.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 10.3 11.4 11.4 -0.1 51.6 51.2 10.5 11.4 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 11.7 11.7 12.3 0.3 58.6 54.8 10.9 11.5 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 10.1 11.2 10.2 0.3 57.6 54.8 10.6 11.1 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.5 12.3 13.2 0.2 61.5 54.6 10.1 11.2 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 8.3 10.1 9.5 0.1 55.2 53.1 8.8 9.8 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.6 13.4 0.0 58.5 52.7 10.1 11.2 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 4.6 6.4 7.5 0.1 53.1 52.9 5.1 5.9 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 9.2 10.7 12.9 0.0 56.0 51.6 9.6 10.3 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.4 13.1 0.1 58.6 53.7 9.6 10.2 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.9 13.3 0.1 56.9 53.0 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 11.0 10.9 11.3 0.0 55.0 52.5 9.7 10.4 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 10.2 11.3 12.2 0.0 54.7 51.6 10.1 11.2 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.3 9.2 0.1 54.4 52.6 9.2 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 9.6 11.8 12.9 0.0 58.3 51.5 10.2 10.9 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 8.3 10.3 11.4 0.3 59.4 54.9 8.6 9.4 10.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.8 9.2 9.0 0.1 54.3 52.6 7.9 8.9 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 10.2 12.1 13.5 0.0 60.1 51.6 10.2 11.4 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------