***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.09.2016.-18.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 10.8 11.6 14.4 0.1 46.5 49.6 11.2 11.9 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.8 14.3 0.3 58.6 55.6 10.4 11.0 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.3 13.9 14.8 0.2 50.8 53.2 12.5 13.8 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.9 12.2 0.4 54.2 54.6 7.8 9.8 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.8 12.3 0.3 54.6 53.5 10.0 10.6 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 8.6 9.8 10.5 0.5 58.9 55.2 8.9 9.6 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 12.2 11.9 14.4 0.2 56.5 54.3 10.8 11.7 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 6.0 6.5 10.5 0.4 61.1 55.9 4.7 5.6 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 12.2 11.9 12.4 0.3 52.6 52.8 11.1 11.8 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.8 11.1 0.3 57.7 54.4 10.7 11.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.3 11.6 11.9 0.5 62.0 55.8 10.0 11.1 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.9 11.1 0.4 60.9 55.1 9.0 9.5 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 9.0 10.1 10.2 0.3 56.2 52.4 9.3 9.8 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.1 12.4 0.2 56.4 54.0 11.0 11.8 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 11.0 11.9 13.4 0.5 59.5 56.0 11.2 11.6 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 10.5 11.8 11.2 0.4 57.0 54.2 10.6 11.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.6 14.2 0.5 60.8 57.7 11.0 12.1 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 10.2 10.4 10.5 0.3 57.6 54.1 9.2 9.9 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.5 14.5 0.4 60.2 56.9 10.8 11.4 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.7 6.5 8.5 0.3 58.4 53.9 5.5 6.4 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.3 13.7 0.2 50.1 51.4 10.3 11.3 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.2 12.2 14.3 0.5 63.3 59.2 9.8 10.6 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.6 12.4 14.5 0.5 61.8 57.9 10.1 11.3 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 11.7 11.9 12.3 0.3 58.1 54.9 10.6 11.4 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.2 11.8 13.1 0.2 47.4 50.8 10.8 11.9 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.4 10.2 0.4 57.6 53.4 9.7 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.7 13.7 0.1 48.0 50.1 10.5 11.9 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.3 10.3 12.5 0.5 57.8 55.6 9.2 10.0 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 9.9 10.0 10.0 0.3 58.3 54.3 7.8 9.6 10.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 12.5 12.1 14.4 0.2 54.1 53.5 11.1 12.0 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------