***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.09.2016.-11.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 12.6 12.7 15.9 1.2 73.1 67.6 9.9 11.9 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 12.9 13.1 15.6 1.2 71.5 68.1 10.6 11.4 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 14.8 15.1 16.2 1.3 76.4 68.7 12.4 14.1 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 10.4 11.2 13.8 1.7 81.0 74.9 7.7 8.9 9.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 11.6 12.0 14.3 1.6 79.6 74.1 9.8 10.6 11.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 10.8 11.7 11.8 1.5 82.5 74.1 8.6 10.0 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 12.7 12.8 15.7 1.0 70.1 66.2 11.2 11.8 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 6.6 7.1 12.1 1.6 78.4 73.8 3.7 5.2 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 12.5 12.8 14.3 1.5 77.0 72.6 10.7 11.8 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 12.5 12.9 12.8 1.5 77.1 72.5 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 12.2 12.7 14.0 1.6 81.1 74.8 10.4 11.3 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 10.7 11.2 13.0 1.6 80.1 74.4 8.6 9.5 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 11.6 12.0 12.5 1.4 78.9 72.1 9.7 10.7 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 13.2 13.7 14.0 1.2 75.3 68.4 10.8 12.0 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 13.6 14.2 15.4 1.6 84.6 76.3 11.7 12.4 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 13.1 14.1 13.3 1.5 82.4 74.6 11.0 12.0 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 13.0 13.2 15.4 1.3 75.1 69.6 11.7 12.3 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 11.5 11.9 12.1 1.3 76.6 70.4 8.6 10.3 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 12.8 13.0 15.9 1.4 76.6 70.2 10.8 12.3 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 7.8 8.2 10.3 1.4 77.7 72.4 5.3 6.5 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 12.3 12.5 15.5 1.3 75.2 69.8 10.3 11.3 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 12.3 12.6 15.8 1.4 79.2 70.8 10.1 11.5 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 12.7 13.1 16.1 1.6 82.4 73.0 10.1 11.8 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 12.8 13.3 14.1 1.3 74.9 69.6 10.4 11.6 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 12.5 12.9 15.0 1.4 75.9 70.3 10.4 11.6 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 11.6 12.1 11.9 1.3 76.3 70.6 9.5 10.8 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 13.4 13.8 15.4 1.2 73.1 68.1 10.0 11.5 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 11.2 12.2 14.2 1.6 83.9 75.6 9.6 10.3 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 10.3 10.8 11.5 1.3 76.6 71.2 7.9 9.1 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 13.3 13.4 15.8 1.1 71.4 66.6 11.3 12.1 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------