***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.08.2016.-04.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 14.1 14.1 16.8 1.0 71.7 68.8 12.0 13.3 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 14.2 14.3 16.5 1.2 76.1 71.4 11.4 13.6 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 16.3 16.4 17.0 1.0 70.5 68.8 14.4 15.6 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 12.1 12.4 15.2 1.8 82.4 81.3 10.0 10.9 11.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 13.3 13.7 15.6 1.2 77.5 73.9 10.8 12.3 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 12.3 12.5 12.8 1.1 77.5 75.3 10.5 11.5 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 14.4 14.7 16.6 1.1 74.4 68.7 11.9 13.8 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 7.7 8.0 13.1 1.2 78.5 75.0 6.0 7.0 7.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 14.2 14.4 15.6 1.1 74.5 71.7 11.7 13.4 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 14.0 14.1 14.0 1.2 76.7 73.5 12.2 13.3 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 14.0 14.4 15.4 1.2 79.2 74.9 11.5 12.8 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 12.5 12.8 14.2 1.3 78.7 75.2 10.5 11.4 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 13.2 13.5 13.8 0.7 70.5 67.0 11.4 12.1 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 14.7 14.6 14.9 0.8 70.5 67.4 12.6 14.0 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 15.7 15.9 17.1 1.4 80.8 79.4 13.0 14.3 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 14.8 14.9 14.7 1.1 75.9 73.4 12.2 14.2 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 14.6 14.9 16.5 1.6 80.8 77.8 12.8 13.8 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 12.7 12.8 13.3 1.2 75.8 72.6 10.9 11.5 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 14.1 14.6 16.7 1.3 77.1 72.6 12.3 13.2 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 9.2 9.5 11.7 1.3 78.1 75.3 7.2 7.9 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 14.0 14.0 16.6 1.0 71.2 69.1 11.6 13.0 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 13.7 14.0 16.8 1.5 77.9 75.1 11.3 12.7 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 14.0 14.4 17.1 1.6 79.9 76.3 11.9 12.8 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 14.4 14.4 15.2 1.0 72.4 69.6 12.0 13.6 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 14.5 14.7 16.2 1.1 70.2 69.5 11.8 13.3 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 13.2 13.3 12.7 0.5 67.2 63.5 11.5 12.7 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 14.6 14.6 16.5 1.1 71.9 70.8 11.5 13.8 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 13.7 14.1 15.6 1.5 80.6 79.2 10.5 11.4 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 11.8 12.0 12.7 1.2 75.6 72.9 10.0 10.8 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 14.3 14.7 16.7 1.1 74.6 68.8 12.3 13.6 14.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------