***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.08.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 35.5 53.5 35.4 76.5 41.7 39.8 44.8 56.8 61.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 36.8 46.3 34.9 79.2 45.7 41.1 34.8 51.1 55.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 35.4 49.6 35.7 80.6 45.5 42.1 30.3 51.7 69.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 33.0 41.6 34.3 77.5 43.1 41.3 36.7 46.1 73.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 30.6 38.8 33.4 79.4 44.4 42.4 30.0 47.2 64.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 26.1 30.9 36.8 72.1 38.4 36.8 26.2 38.9 46.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 33.2 36.8 33.7 76.8 43.7 39.5 30.8 45.4 52.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 56.7 65.3 39.4 80.1 42.2 41.1 55.8 74.6 94.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 38.1 45.9 34.9 80.1 44.3 42.5 38.5 50.6 59.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 36.5 47.1 40.8 80.8 42.6 41.7 35.0 52.7 73.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 28.5 38.2 33.4 78.6 43.4 41.1 34.1 45.9 63.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 29.6 40.0 32.9 79.2 43.6 41.3 30.2 44.5 60.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 28.8 37.8 33.6 75.0 41.4 39.9 33.5 39.9 54.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 45.9 57.7 46.1 85.0 46.5 43.2 50.7 60.2 73.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 19.5 24.1 29.4 73.9 44.7 41.0 22.2 29.9 37.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 25.6 35.7 33.1 77.9 43.4 41.3 26.8 38.0 52.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 48.9 40.4 34.7 79.9 45.4 40.3 34.3 44.0 56.8 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 40.3 57.5 45.7 81.9 40.3 41.5 46.7 62.4 77.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 53.0 45.1 36.0 81.4 47.3 42.3 36.5 46.5 59.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 53.6 64.7 49.0 81.8 40.8 41.0 58.3 66.8 75.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 32.5 43.4 35.2 81.3 44.5 43.0 27.4 49.5 58.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 51.4 45.8 37.6 82.2 45.3 41.2 35.8 47.3 57.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 34.9 41.3 37.5 85.0 51.2 43.7 33.6 40.7 58.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 44.3 55.3 41.5 82.9 41.9 42.4 41.7 63.4 77.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 36.6 42.6 37.3 77.5 42.7 40.7 38.0 52.4 62.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 22.9 29.0 29.7 69.8 39.5 37.2 24.3 34.8 38.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 30.3 47.4 37.4 76.4 42.6 39.4 40.9 51.2 60.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 22.7 29.3 32.1 76.4 44.3 41.2 21.1 35.5 43.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 65.3 82.4 47.0 81.3 38.9 40.8 71.4 95.7 117.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 33.4 40.0 35.3 79.3 45.1 41.5 29.3 42.9 49.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------