***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.8 12.0 10.8 92.4 63.2 51.4 1.1 7.8 14.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 9.9 11.4 10.3 93.3 61.5 51.5 2.2 7.8 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 11.1 16.1 11.1 99.8 65.0 51.9 2.8 8.1 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 7.2 8.3 9.7 87.7 63.9 50.3 1.5 4.3 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 7.0 8.2 9.9 92.9 66.1 50.8 0.4 4.0 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.8 9.1 10.4 85.6 62.0 48.1 3.5 7.3 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.4 10.1 90.7 60.3 51.2 2.4 9.0 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 12.4 12.2 11.6 94.2 62.9 52.1 2.1 8.7 13.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 6.3 8.2 10.3 93.2 64.9 50.3 1.3 3.7 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 9.2 10.2 11.8 93.5 63.1 51.1 2.5 6.4 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 6.4 8.9 9.5 90.8 65.4 51.5 0.4 3.7 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 6.6 9.3 9.8 94.9 65.3 52.8 0.2 5.2 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 9.1 9.9 9.9 90.3 64.8 51.6 1.4 6.1 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 17.8 24.5 13.3 104.1 64.9 51.4 2.1 13.8 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.0 5.1 7.7 77.0 64.8 49.5 0.2 1.9 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.5 9.3 88.6 65.3 50.8 0.4 3.2 5.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.8 9.3 10.1 95.3 62.5 52.1 2.7 5.6 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.7 13.8 13.3 97.8 63.5 51.9 1.2 7.3 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 9.3 11.9 10.5 96.2 62.7 51.4 1.8 5.8 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 13.3 17.1 14.8 96.6 64.0 53.1 0.4 10.4 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.3 13.3 10.5 96.4 65.4 51.1 2.9 8.8 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.8 11.2 10.4 95.0 62.2 50.6 1.8 7.7 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 12.3 15.5 10.9 101.7 64.4 51.1 2.9 9.1 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 13.0 22.4 12.4 102.6 65.3 51.6 3.6 8.9 22.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.4 12.6 10.9 91.6 65.0 51.2 2.3 4.9 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 9.4 12.9 9.2 85.1 64.8 49.7 0.9 7.2 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 7.4 9.6 11.2 92.6 62.9 51.2 1.7 5.3 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.7 9.4 8.9 84.7 64.9 49.7 0.4 1.8 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.2 22.0 13.7 97.4 63.6 52.6 5.8 15.5 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 8.8 12.7 10.8 94.7 62.1 51.6 1.2 6.2 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------