***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.6 20.6 9.0 92.6 61.0 46.7 2.8 7.9 22.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.5 15.4 10.1 104.3 65.0 48.6 2.8 9.5 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 2.8 17.1 9.1 99.6 63.7 48.3 0.9 6.3 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.0 12.7 8.6 94.9 63.1 48.7 1.6 8.3 13.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.5 7.6 89.8 61.4 47.9 1.4 11.2 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.5 6.2 8.8 80.0 58.7 45.9 1.5 4.8 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.8 13.2 9.4 96.4 65.8 47.7 3.4 6.2 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 9.0 20.5 8.1 80.8 58.4 46.0 9.8 19.3 27.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 14.1 13.2 7.7 86.7 58.7 47.2 4.0 11.2 21.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.5 13.5 8.7 83.7 57.4 46.6 4.9 11.6 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.5 12.5 6.8 84.0 62.7 46.9 1.7 9.4 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.6 12.3 6.4 78.4 60.1 45.1 2.6 8.2 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.6 10.2 7.5 82.1 61.9 46.1 2.0 5.8 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 3.0 17.3 12.2 97.7 60.4 46.6 3.3 7.6 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 1.3 10.7 7.6 91.8 66.1 49.2 1.3 2.8 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.8 7.6 7.4 87.7 64.3 47.5 3.2 5.9 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.7 15.4 9.6 93.0 63.1 46.6 1.7 10.4 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.9 17.5 9.9 83.5 57.9 45.7 5.5 12.6 19.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.0 14.3 10.5 110.5 64.5 50.0 2.5 8.1 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 8.4 16.4 11.0 85.1 59.2 45.1 7.0 13.6 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 7.1 16.9 8.2 96.9 62.4 48.1 2.5 15.8 20.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 12.3 9.9 10.6 95.3 62.5 47.8 1.5 7.9 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.5 15.6 11.1 118.8 64.7 50.8 4.2 7.5 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.0 17.4 9.9 91.0 59.3 46.0 3.9 9.4 19.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 5.2 21.1 9.5 96.1 62.2 47.1 2.0 12.4 30.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 1.9 5.1 6.1 72.2 58.8 45.0 1.0 4.0 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.4 24.1 9.9 94.1 61.1 46.3 0.9 5.5 25.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.1 11.1 8.2 94.1 64.3 48.9 0.8 6.7 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 8.4 22.9 10.3 82.7 56.3 44.8 10.0 16.5 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 5.0 11.8 10.2 105.3 65.5 48.9 5.4 10.8 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------